Bottom line: things are going to have to get a lot worse before Mbeki and the "International Community" get themselves in gear. But when they do success will depend on the groundwork that is even now being laid by the USA. Given Mugabe, it is just a question of when.
Remember, Mugabe is in his eighties and is reportedly in poor health. There won't be any serious opportunities for reform while he still lives. Once he dies, though, all bets are off and foreign intervention is a distinct possibility.
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