Day By Day

Thursday, May 29, 2008

What Recession?

As I have pointed out numerous times, we are not in a recession and have not been for several years. To have a recession you have to have a decline in GNP [technically two consecutive quarters of negative growth] and so far we have had no [repeat NO] quarters of decline in recent years. The worst that can be said is that we are in a period of relatively slow growth, and that's a far cry from a recession.

And the slowdown in growth is not so extreme as it has been portrayed. Revised figures for GNP growth in the first quarter of 2008 are higher than earlier estimates [0.9 percent compared to 0.6 percent growth]. What is more, the first quarter growth is higher than the fourth quarter of 2007. That means that the worst is over and that economic growth is picking up.

Read about it here.

And in additional good news, gold and oil prices have begun to drop, the dollar is strengthening, orders for durable goods are higher than predicted, and the stock market is rising.

It's too soon to tell, but it is beginning to look as though the Bush administration has once again provided sound, wise, and expert leadership in a time of economic difficulty. Of course this is an election year where angst and hyperbole rule everywhere, so don't expect Dubya to get much credit.


Read James Pethokoukis' commentary here.


And for those who worry about the weakness of the dollar, read this.