With prior monthly revisions non-farm payrolls increased 207,000—that includes 132,000 new jobs in June, 190,000 in May, and a 122,000 in April. Not too hot, not too cold.Read it here.
Year-to-year wages for non-management workers increased 3.9 percent. Comparing that with the 2.3 percent increase in the headline inflation personal consumer deflator (for May, the latest month) leaves about 1.5 percent improvement in real wages.
The unemployment rate remains at a historically low 4.5 percent. This means the Fed will neither tighten nor ease. Holding its target rate steady, with a rising economy and profits, is very bullish for stocks.
(Note: If you graduated from college your jobless rate is 2.0 percent. If you failed to graduate from high school your rate is a much higher 6.7 percent. Message: Stay in school.)
The whole economy is experiencing a midyear pick up, led mostly by business, though consumers will be chipping in. For the consumer pessimists out there, remember Say’s Law—supply creates its own demand. In other words, as businesses invest, produce, and hire more, rising incomes will spur consumer spending.
Low inflation, rising real wages, business and consumer confidence, a steady rate of economic growth -- and that's just the beginning. The global picture is just as good.
James Pethokoukis in U. S. News and World Report writes:
Moreover, if we and the consensus [of economic experts] are correct, then the period 2003-2008 will have been one of the most powerful periods of economic growth globally since accurate data has been collectable for much of the world."Read it here.
Perhaps the best testimony for the effectiveness of the Bush administration's economic management is that Democrats have fallen silent on the issue. Even they can't deny it any more.
