Day By Day

Sunday, June 25, 2006

Pennsylvania Politics -- Swann Diving

The latest Quinnipiac Poll [here] has no joy for Swann supporters. It shows him trailing Ed Rendell by 24 points, 55% to 31%. The one ray of hope for Swann is that half the electorate still says they don't know enough to have an opinion about his suitability for office.

What is most striking is that 27% of Republican voters are supporting Rendell, a clear indication of the extent to which State Republicans have been disaffected.

They are not coming back.

The key to all of this was a Rovian decision to back Specter against Toomey two years ago. It looked good at the time, insuring that the Republicans would keep that seat and that Arlen would cooperate in getting conservative judges through the Judiciary committee. But, though the move was successful in that regard, it sowed the seeds of today's discontent. Republican conservatives are determined to punish the Party leadership and that is an obstacle neither Swann nor Santorum [who betrayed Toomey] seem to be able to overcome.

Somewhere Pat Toomey is smiling.

Rove may well have gained two supreme court justices at the expense of losing Pennsylvania to the Republicans for a generation.


Angry Chad said...

I hope the republicans have lost more than just Pennsylvania, and I hope it's for far longer than just a generation.

D. B. Light said...

That would be disastrous. One of the most important elements of our political system is a durable competition between two parties that are roughly evenly matched. Pennsylvania is lucky in that it has a healthy two party competition. If you want to see the effect of long-term one-party dominance, look at Louisiana.