On that day eminent Harvard biologist George Wald solemnly pronounced, "civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind."
Ron Bailey, writing for Reason back in 2000 surveyed a number of such remarks made by prominent "scientists" and commentators and concluded, "The prophets of doom were not simply wrong, but spectacularly wrong."
The population bomb never exploded. Predictions of global famine and disruption were wildly off the mark.
Estimates of population growth were off by about 30%, on the high side.
And what about pollution?
"Since 1970, total U.S. population increased 29 percent, vehicle miles traveled increased 121 percent, and the gross domestic product (GDP) increased 104 percent. During that same period, notable reductions in air quality concentrations and emissions took place." Since 1970, ambient levels of sulfur dioxide and carbon monoxide have fallen by 75 percent, while total suspended particulates like smoke, soot, and dust have been cut by 50 percent since the 1950s.
In 1988, the particulate standard was changed to account for smaller particles. Even under this tougher standard, particulates have declined an additional 15 percent. Ambient ozone and nitrogen dioxide, prime constituents of smog, are both down by 30 percent since the 1970s. According to the EPA, the total number of days with air pollution alerts dropped 56 percent in Southern California and 66 percent in the remaining major cities in the United States between 1988 and 1997.
In similar terms, predictions about water shortages, the environmental risks of pesticides and genetic-modification, the depletion of resources, and a host of other concerns have failed to materialize.
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