Day By Day

Wednesday, April 20, 2005

Pennsylvania Politics -- Santorum and Casey

AP reports:

HARRISBURG, Pa. - Democrat Robert P. Casey Jr. holds a 14-percentage-point lead over Republican Sen. Rick Santorum in the 2006 campaign for Santorum's seat, according to an independent poll released Wednesday.

Casey, Pennsylvania's state treasurer and son of the late governor, was favored by 49 percent of the respondents in the Quinnipiac University poll, compared to 35 percent for the second-term incumbent. Thirteen percent were undecided.

The widening of Casey's lead, from 46-41 percent in a Quinnipiac survey in February, comes on the heels of Santorum's high-profile advocacy of two controversial causes - President Bush's Social Security overhaul plan and congressional intervention in the Terry Schiavo case.

Casey has stayed largely out of the public eye since announcing on March 4 that he planned to take on Santorum. His announcement came at the urging of national Democratic leaders and after two prospective opponents for the nomination stepped aside. He still faces opposition from Chuck Pennacchio, a college professor who has not run for office before.

"Santorum has become a more controversial public figure in the past two months and Bob Casey, without doing much of anything to attract headlines, is the beneficiary," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Connecticut-based university's polling institute.

The 1,395 respondents in the poll were asked how Santorum's role in the Social Security battle and the Schiavo case affected their view of him. In each case, one-third or more said it made them less likely to vote for him. About 15 percent said it made them more likely to support Santorum. More than 40 percent said those controversies made no difference to them. Forty-eight percent said they approved of the way Santorum, the No. 3 Republican in the Senate, is handling his job. Thirty-five percent said they disapproved. In the February poll, 52 percent approved and 31 percent disapproved.

It's far to early to make anything of this. Casey is largely an unknown factor running on his father's name. Santorum's approval rating is solidly around 50% and his major positions are well known. As Casey begins to be defined [and Santorum will be working hard to control that definition] the real contours of the race will emerge.

Social security could be a big problem for Santorum. Pennsylvania ranks second behind Florida in the proportion of retirees in its population. What's more this is not the affluent retiree population we keep hearing about in the national media. Lots of these people are just scraping by. The AARP has been demagoguing the issue hard up here. If the oldies [and I include myself in that category] start to believe that Santorum is a threat to their incomes, watch out.

Health Care is another hot issue in this state. I've talked with a lot of oldies and they definitely are not impressed by Bush's prescription program. Casey might be able to exploit those anxieties. But, as I said, it's far too early to say.

Read the story here.

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