The Limits of Democratic Reform -- Pakistan and Uganda

Democratic reform is spreading rapidly around the globe, appearing in unlikely places. Most of the world's attention has been focused on the Middle East and states that were once part of the Soviet empire. There destabilization of authoritarian regimes has not threatened, and may actually have advanced, American interests. But now democratic reform threatens the stability of regimes that are important to our national interests. As a result the administration is going to have to make some very hard choices.

One of the touchiest issues centers on the authoritarian government of General Pervez Musharraf in Pakistan. In recent days the nation has been shaken by strikes, demonstrations and riots protesting the system of representation in the government, unemployment, unpopular public works projects, and the like. The welter of violence involves ethnic groups, unions, radical Islamists, and of course university students. The government has taken strong, and sometimes violent, measures to restore order.

Read about the disturbances here and here.

Just this week a US State Department report "denounced Pakistan for a 'poor' human rights record, a military-dominated political system and corrupt judiciary."

But Pakistan is a nuclear power in a volatile relationship with another nuclear power, India, and its cooperation is essential to the US war on terror. We have strong reasons to preserve the stability of Musharraf's regime.

As AFP notes:

Perhaps more than any other country, Pakistan highlights the challenges facing President George W. Bush's administration as it tries to square its drive for global democracy with its strategic needs in the war on terror.

How has the US responded? -- with ambiguity and incoherence.

Witness this. When asked about the State Department report condemning Pakistan,

The US ambassador to Pakistan Ryan C Crocker has said that there is no dictatorship in Pakistan and President Musharraf is taking Pakistan towards democracy in spite of being in the uniform.

While talking to senior representatives of the media here the US ambassador said that Pakistan is an open society where the media is free.

Democracy does not only mean free and fair elections but it is also the name of stable institutions and President Musharraf is stabilizing every institution in the country, The News quoted Crocker as saying. (ANI)

HUH? Now that's an interesting take.

Read the whole thing here.

Just two weeks ago Condi Rice,

praised Pakistan’s progress in instituting democratic reforms leading to elections in 2007 and its cooperation in the war on terrorism...

The top U.S. diplomat gave no indication that she pressed President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, who seized power in a 1999 coup, about giving up his control of the armed forces, a longstanding U.S. demand.

Asked about Musharraf’s status, Rice declined to answer, focusing instead on the country’s move toward reform.

Tricksy, tricksy... Read the whole thing here.

Two points to make here:

1) Many commentators have tried to cast Bush as an "idealist" who disdains the compromises urged by the "realists." Obviously that is not the case with regard to Pakistan. Bush is far more of a pragmatist than most pundits are willing to admit.

2) Despite the obvious abuses, Musharraf has made considerable strides toward democratizing Pakistan, a fact emphasized by Secretary Rice. Too much pressure could be counter-productive.

And then there is Uganda, a US ally with considerable oil resources.

There, an attempt to extend the term of office of current President Yoweri Museveni has given rise to a protest movement, Force For Change.

Publius links to an account of a recent demonstration:

Kampala - Ugandan police used water cannons and tear gas to break up an opposition demonstration on Thursday, engaging in running battles with marchers protesting efforts to extend the president’s tenure...

After the initial confrontation on Thursday, the protesters used concrete blocks to try to barricade Kampala’s main street. They waved banners reading, “Museveni Go,” “Respect the Constitution” and “United States Save Us.”

Interesting that last line. Eh?

Read the whole thing here.

No response yet from Washington, and given Uganda's strategic importance, I wouldn't hold my breath....

Stay tuned.