Lebanon..., Lebanon

It is damnably hard to get a read on what is happening in Lebanon. One thing is certain -- you cannot trust the MSM to give you an accurate picture.

Almost from the day Israeli troops began to strike northward we were barraged with stories telling us that Lebanon was a quagmire, that Israel was making the same mistakes they did two decades ago, that Hiz'bullah was gaining strength and credibility and emerging as heroes of the Arab world, that Israel could not take casualties, that they were losing, that the myth of the IDF invincibility had been punctured, that Israel could not stand up to the weight of world opinion, that Bush would be forced any moment now to call the Israeli war dogs to heel.

The negativity was, and continues to be, overwhelming. What is more, it seems to be entirely unrelated to anything that is actually transpiring in Lebanon.

But, not all the news from the region is bad, and piece by piece an alternative picture is beginning to emerge, like a jigsaw puzzle being assembled.

Note, for instance, this assessment by Steve Schippert in ThreatsWatch:

Amid the relentless images of the dead extracted from a building in Qana, amid the fiery anger those images generated – from Lebanon to Europe and from Egypt to Indonesia - and amid deafening global cries for an immediate ceasefire, a curiously contradictory picture is emerging from the battlefields of Hizballistan: Hizballah is on the ropes, running short of resources and desperate for a ceasefire for its very survival.

While the world has held itself aghast at ‘Israeli aggression,’ Israel has been relentless in pursuit of what has been described as the fiercest Arab fighting force in the region. Undeterred by global outcry as over two thousand rockets and missiles have rained down upon Israeli cities with relatively little note, Israel has made good on their Prime Minister’s declaration of “Enough.”

Israel is providing a lesson on fighting the war on terror.

The mighty Hizballah, rightfully feared as the most lethally armed terrorist organization on the planet, is now on the ropes. Only their lifeline from Syria sustains them in the midst of devastating strikes from the Israeli Air Force. From the hundreds of rocket launchers in southern Lebanon to weapons depots and infrastructure all the way up the Bekaa Valley in Baalbek, Hizballah’s operational headquarters city, the IAF has exacted a heavy toll from Hizballah since the attack in Israel in which Hizballah terrorists killed eight IDF soldiers and abducted the two surviving.

Read it here.

Not necessarily the most reliable source, but the negativity of the MSM is probably no more accurate. It is certain that Israel has just launched a huge offensive [here]. That doesn't sound like a nation on the ropes and Israeli officials certainly don't sound downbeat:

The ferocity of the battles in Baalbek and across southern Lebanon on Tuesday, the determination of the Israelis to keep fighting and the minimal diplomatic progress toward a cease-fire all indicate the 3-week-old war is more likely to escalate than end soon.
...

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said it was not in Israel's interest to agree to an immediate cease-fire because every day of fighting weakens the guerrillas.

"Every additional day is a day that drains the strength of this cruel enemy," he said. "Every extra day is a day in which the (army) reduces their capability, contains their firing ability and their ability to hit in the future."

Bill Roggio, at Counterterrorism Blog, notes that Hiz'bullah is making dark threats against the Lebanese government if it doesn't provide more support [here]. That doesn't sound encouraging. Apparently Lebanon is not as united against Israel as the MSM likes to claim. Certainly the Christian and Druze enclaves are not happy. At the same time he notes that diplomatic pressure is limiting Israel's options in dealing with Hiz'bullah.

Michael J. Totten notes [here] that Hiz'bullah leader Hassan Nasrallah is a dead man walking.

Hezbollah’s secretary general is a marked man now, and if he comes out of hiding the Israelis will put one in his forehead. Short of some kind of miracle, Nasrallah will be reduced to releasing Jihad TV videos from exile or from the urban equivalent of a cave in Afghanistan. No more boozing and chasing girls in Gemmayze for him! The problem with an attempted Hezbollah coup d’etat is not that they might succeed, but that they could start another war trying.

He also notes:

Threat of civil war is not necessarily a bad thing. Obviously a real civil war would be a disaster for Lebanon, for Israel, for the US, for everyone except Syria and Iran. But it is precisely this possibility that may convince Hezbollah to surrender before this is over. I’ve said before that the Christians, Sunni, and Druze cannot win a civil war against Hezbollah. But that cuts both ways. Hezbollah cannot take over the country unless they summon armies from abroad. Doesn’t mean they won’t try to take over (they just might be that crazy right now), but they will not succeed if they do.

And, although the Lebanese "street" is voiciferously anti-Israel [and anti-US] right now, that probably doesn't matter much in the long run. What matters is the political leadership which sees Hiz'bullah as a greater threat than even Israel. Those dark threats issuing from Hiz'bullah leadership aren't doing anything to lessen those fears.

And he quotes an e-mail from Tony at Across the Bay to the effect that a moderate Shiite alternative to Hiz'bullah is emerging.

"The development of moderate Shiite alternatives is necessary (there was a recent meeting of Shiite intellectuals, writers, and independents and they are starting to realize all of this and they called for the full integration of the Shiites into the state), and that Jumblat is fully aware of the dangers of the Shiites feeling disempowered again, which is why he is reaching out to them now, and stressing how they are "partners" and stressing how Berri (who now is the moderate alternative in comparison) is "a pillar of the Taef accords" (i.e. an integral part of the current republic), etc. Ghassan Tueni is calling for the same thing, even going to do away with the sectarian system, etc. So there is awareness on the part of the leadership of the dangers of the Shiites suffering the kind of disillusionment that the Christians did in the 90s under the Syrians."

On the other hand, France is being it's usual helpful self.

AFP News reports:

Diplomatic sources in France said Paris will boycott the meetings on the deployment of an international force in Lebanon, which are scheduled for Thursday. (AFP)

This is significant because of France's former colonial role in Lebanon. In the wake of the Cedar Revolution, France demanded that it be given the lead role in reconstructing Lebanese society, and the US deferred to that demand. Well, we saw how that turned out -- Hiz'bullah refused to disarm and gained a free hand to stir up trouble with the result that Israel attacked. Now that everything has fallen apart France refuses to cooperate in cleaning up the mess.

'bout par for the course, I would say.