Day By Day

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Why Obama Lost?

Are New Hampshire voters victims of fraud, are they closet racists, or are they just plain lazy? Those are the theories being floated to explain the fact that polls predicted an Obama landslide, but the vote went to Hillary.

This morning on MSNBC Chris Matthews was touting the liberal line that the reason the polls in New Hampshire were so much in error was due to the "Bradley Rule". The "rule" holds that American voters are racists who are ashamed of their racism so they lie to pollsters [who can identify them personally] about their willingness to vote for a black man, but later in the anonymity of the voting booth vote white.

This is plausible on the face of it, especially since the Iowa caucus vote, which was public, went heavily for Obama. However there are alternative explanations.

Radicals nutroot types are blaming it on fraud, saying that Diebold stole the election for Hillary. [here]

But Matt Braynard has a different explanation, also plausible. It was a combination of celebrity, which led marginal voters to have a momentary enthusiasm for Obama, which was picked up in the polls, but not enough enthusiasm to actually go to the polls for him. [here]

Which explanation you favor says a lot about how you view America and Americans.

Not surprisingly, the "racist" line is popular in Europe and on MSNBC.