John Ferrell, over at U. S. News, thinks the Specter defection is bad for both parties. It will increase the Democrats' arrogance and the Republicans' ideological rigidity. [here] His colleague, Robert Schlesinger, predicts that Specter will face opposition from Joe Torsella and (most importantly) from Joe Sestak, but not Allyson Schwartz. [here]
Things really do not look good for Specter. He has no chance against Toomey, which is why he bolted the party. Polls say that he could not win as an independent, and he has to be a long shot against Sestak. Still, Specter has a lot of money in his warchest, so we can't count him out this early. Besides, Obama has promised to support Specter in the primaries. That may, however, not pan out. Obama's promises are not something you should rely on.
What fascinates me about this is that removing Specter opens the way for a new leadership group in the Republican Party, but putting him at the top of the Democratic ticket blocks the rising generation of Democrat leaders. Right now national Democrats are drooling over gaining a Senate seat, but sticking with Specter could hurt the party at the State level.
Things are starting to get interesting.
