This represents a significant narrowing of the gap since February when the gap was fifteen points. Santorum's support has not changed in the interim, but Casey has dropped about four points, mostly because of his pro-life stance.
The Santorum camp had hoped for a much larger drop as Casey's position became known, but that hasn't happened. Most people in the State just don't give much of a damn about the issue and don't even know what Casey's position is. Among those who feel strongly enough on the issue to allow it to decide their vote, pro-lifers outnumber abortion advocates by three to one. So, Casey's loss was minimal. One small ray of hope for the Santorum side. Forty percent of the voters say they don't know enough about Bob Casey to have a favorable or unfavorable opiion of him.
Basically, what the poll says is that few Pennsylvania voters have paid much attention to the election so far, that most people have either favorable or mixed feelings toward Santorum while about a third of the electorate actively hates him, and that Casey has yet to establish a sharply defined image for most voters. National media are trying to gin up a lot of publicity for this election, but it doesn't seem to have taken in the State yet. There's a lot more interest in the Swann/Rendell contest so far. In a low turnout election, that block of Santorum-haters is going to be important.
The poll also registers strong disapproval of the Iraq war and of Bush's handling of it. No change there.
Read the poll results here.
The Rasmussen Poll is also out and it confirms some aspects of the Quinnipiac effort. Rasmussen has Casey nine points ahead of Santorum, with the gap narrowing from past polls; basically what Quinnipiac found. But there is one big difference.
Quinnipiac found that Casey's pro-life position caused him little harm among Democrats and actually benefited him in the general public, but Rasmussen has a different take. When informed of Casey's pro-life views, a full 24% of people who initially had indicated a preference for him changed their mind, and about half of these switched their vote for Santorum. Once Casey's pro-life views were known Santorum moved ahead in the poll 46% to 41%.
News about NOW's concerns caused Casey's support to fall 12 points among moderate voters and 13 points among liberal voters. It did not gain him any conservative votes.
From a partisan perspective, Casey lost 7 points of support among unaffiliated voters and 13 points among Democrats. Just as important, however, the highlighting of Casey's pro-Life views actually increased Santorum's support among Republicans.
Maybe this is going to turn into an interesting race after all. So far, most people just haven't tuned in, but as they do this summer, anything can happen.
Stay tuned....
Read the Rasmussen poll report here.
UPDATE:
Tom Bevan over at RCP reviews the same polls and finds encouragement there for Santourm. He notes that as voters learn more about Casey his approval rating drops. [here]
AND THERE'S THIS:
The NYT notes that Rudy Giuliani is campaigning for Santorum. That's gotta help. [here]
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