Strategy Page has an overview of thc current situation in Iraq on the third anniversary of the fall of Baghdad. It boils down to three basic points:
1) The "insurgency." particularly the al-Qaeda element, is in deep trouble. It has been discredited throughout the Arab world.
2) As the insurgency has weakened gangs have asserted themselves and are now the major problem standing in the way of the establishment of civil order.
3) A widespread culture of corruption is emerging as a major problem for the future.
Read the whole thing here.
Perhaps the best comparison is not to Vietnam in the 1960's, but to Chicago in the Twenties.
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