I've suspected this for a long time. It's good to see someone actually digging out and running the figures. Bush's popularity tracks quite closely with gas prices, more so than with combat deaths in Iraq. I'd like to see the regressions, and some other factors thrown into the mix. Apparently someone in an econometrics course is doing them. Read about it here.
It makes sense that pain at the pump would be a bigger factor in Bush's unpopularity than anything going on in Iraq, and that Middle East policy should be perceived largely by the American public in terms of how it affects gas prices. Gas is a major expense for most American families and changes in driving habits implies important changes in how people live. Of course they are sensitive to that. This is the real problem with globalization. Interdependency makes us all dependent on things not only out of our control, but out of our government's control, too.
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