Maryland Politics -- Mfume Leads Cardin in WaPo Poll

The latest WaPo poll is out [here] and it has some interesting features.

Mfume is beating Cardin 31% to 25% with 32% undecided among registered voters. Among likely voters the lead is 33% to 26%. This means the outcome is still very up in the air, and that is bad news for Cardin who all along has been trying to bury Kweisi in order to focus his attention on Republican candidate Michael Steele.

Race is all-important. Nearly all of Kweisi's support is from blacks while Cardin's is from whites. And there's this:

[I]f Cardin wins the Democratic primary, the poll shows that nearly a quarter of all black voters would back Steele. If Mfume wins the primary, black voters would stay with the Democratic Party, but Steele would see a nine-point jump in his support from white voters.

Both Democrats hold leads over Steele, but the race is much closer if Kweisi is the candidate. In fact, among likely voters the race is deadlocked at 46% if the Dems run Mfume.

Cardin disputes the results of this poll saying that his internal polling shows him with a double digit lead.

And in the gubenatorial race which features two white candidates party loyalty trumps everything. Voters generally approve of Republican governor Ehrlich's performance, like him, and think he is honest, but against Baltimore's Democratic Mayor, Martin O'Malley, Ehrlich loses decisively -- 55% to 39% percent among likely voters.

Read the WaPo writeup here.

UPDATE:

Commentary from Captain Ed who notes that if Cardin is not careful in how he treats Mfume he risks alienating black voters who might migrate over to vote for Steele. [here]

The interesting point to be made here is that in this race as perhaps none before, Democrats can't afford to take the black vote for granted. Steele at this point has the potential to pull in as much as one quarter of the black vote against Cardin. Add to this the fact that Cardin is not well known to most Maryland voters. By contrast both Mfume and Steele have well established statewide public images. That is both a liability and an opportunity. It all depends on who gets to define Cardin to those voters.

Ooooooh..., this is starting to get interesting!

RELATED:

Tim Graham over at Newsbusters, notes a bias in WaPo coverage of Steele's candidacy. [here]

Looking through the blog comments, what is interesting is how often "progressive" bloggers assume that Kweisi is one of them. Obviously, they don't know him, haven't talked with him, or if they do, they haven't been listening to what he's saying.