Pennsylvania Politics -- Rick's Problem

RCP offers its overview of the situation in Pennsylvania's Senate race.

Cutting through the noise, Casey appears to have a rough, structural 50-40 lead. And that, in a nutshell, is Santorum's biggest problem: he is just down by too much.
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There is no question that this race is going to close. And it would be a mistake to completely write off Santorum's chances of pulling out a come-from-behind win. Casey has blown big leads before, including a 20+ point lead against Rendell in the 2002 Democratic primary that turned into a 14-point loss.

Santorum is an excellent campaigner (much better than Casey) and he will also be very well funded. Right now he holds a 2-1 edge in cash-on-hand. Also Pennsylvania's senior Senator Arlen Specter, who literally owes his seat to Santorum, will be an asset in the critical Southeast part of the state where Santorum has to do well if he hopes to prevail.

But ultimately, the article suggests, Santorum's chances depend on matters beyond his control. He needs to see Bush's and the Republican Party's general poll numbers improve, as they are starting to do. The idea is that Santorum can close the gap somewhat on his own, and is likely to do so, but needs the boost from Bush and the Party's poll ratings to put him over the top. That, RCP concludes is unlikely to happen.

Read it here.

Maybe so, but I think that RCP attributes far too much influence to the national polls. Bush is not on the ballot and Rick has distanced himself from the President on several important issues. I doubt that anyone will be going into the booth this fall saying "I'll vote for Casey, that will show Bush!" Ultimately this is a race between Casey and Santorum. Bush and the Party are irrelevant.

The only other figures who do matter are Rendell and Specter. As RCP notes Rendell will help Casey's numbers in Philly and Specter will help Santorum in the Philly burbs. That is where one of the two deciding battles will take place.

The second battle -- not mentioned by RCP is Santorum's attempt to energize his Party's conservative wing.

If Specter can sanitize Rick for moderate voters in the Philly burbs and Rick can energize conservatives he has a real chance to take this thing regardless of what Bush or the national Party do.