Pennsylvania Politics -- The Moderate Dilemma

Salena Zito, writing in the Tribune Review, provides an overview of the political situation in Pennsylvania going into the fall contests.

In the congressional races the big news is that areas in suburban Philadelphia that were once safely Republican are no longer safe. Republican incumbents are facing serious challenges there and might well lose.

The problem for the GOP candidates did not happen overnight; it has been 15 years in the making. The local GOP bosses can no longer deliver statewide candidates and they show signs of down-ballot fatigue.

Exactly. The Republican leadership in Pennsylvania is seriously out of touch with the electorate on a number of issues. That was clear in this year's primaries where several Party leaders were ousted. At the time Republicans attributed it to the legislative pay raise issue, and hoped it was nothing more than momentary discontent, but that was wishful thinking. The conservative Republican revolt is deep and broad and affects more than State officials. Congress critters are feeling the heat, as are Statewide candidates. The only hope for Republicans is the fact that Democrat voters are only slightly less disaffected.

To some extent this is typical off-year electioneering. The strategy traditionally pursued by both parties is to suppress the independent and moderate vote and to turn out the base. In essence that puts the agenda in the hands of the crazies in both parties.

But for Republicans this comes on the heels of the 2004 race in which Party leaders systematically suppressed the base in an attempt to attract moderate voters. That campaign, especially Bush and Santorum's support of Arlen Specter, was seen by conservatives as crass cynicism and betrayal, and they are still pissed. Republican dissenters are energized and are quite willing to tear down the whole structure of the Party rather than to continue to have it dominated by moderates. They see no reason to compromise.

But in some areas, such as the Philly burbs, moderation is required. The general party strategy does not apply, and the stridency of the conservative "base" alienates voters that Republicans need to keep their seats. It's not surprising to see candidates in those areas having trouble.

Regarding the Statewide races, Zito recognizes that the Democrats have substantial leads, but sees some hope for the Republicans. Swann got off to a rocky start and is up against a manic campaigner in Rendell, but "signs of life have begun to spring within his campaign and he is starting to find his political legs."

Sounds like wishful thinking to me.

And regarding Santorum: he is now "less than ten points behind and is tracking forward." With an all-out effort he can close the gap and force Casey, an "abysmal campaigner", out into public view where his liabilities will become manifest.

This I think is reasonable. Santorum can't be counted out yet and could very well pull this one out. He is desperately trying to reconnect with the conservative base, but the irony of this is the more high-profile Republicans like Rick focus on the conservative agenda the harder they make it for moderate candidates in the Philly region. That is the moderate dilemma -- trying to survive in an off-year campaign in which uncompromising conservatives are demanding, and increasingly getting, attention both from the media and from prominent candidates.

At this late date the races in Penna are still interesting and should get even more so.

Stay tuned.

Read the whole article here.

RELATED:

Dick Morris notes a similar phenomenon on the national level in which Republicans, responding to the stridency of the anti-immigration forces, are increasingly distancing themselves from their moderate, mainstream, constituents.

Read it here.

All this talk about the "base" reminds me that al-Qaeda is Arabic for "the base."