Election coverage

Fox News [MSNBC, too] keeps showing pictures of an empty polling site in Baghdad. Tony Snow admits that voting is "a little slow right now." From the pictures, it is nonexistent. Opinion is divided so far. One side argues that this is just a tiny beginning to a long, drawn-out, difficult and dangerous process and we should not make too much of it. The other side holds that just the fact that an election is being held means that the victory has already been won, that the images projected throughout the Middle East from Iraq will transform the region. My sense is that both views contain some elements of truth. Today something profound is taking place that will have ramifications throughout the Arab world, but that progress will be slow, dangerous, and difficult. The greatest fear I have right now is that after the election public support for our efforts will decline and we will reprise our abandonment of Vietnam.

UPDATE: It is now midnight. A small number of people have filtered into the main polling station. Some of them appear to be voters, but some also seem to be election officials and members of the media. Most of the people who appear on screen are well-dressed and wearing western clothing. Tony Snow observes that right now Iraq is still cold and dark.

12:05 MSNBC is now showing some voter activity at the Baghdad polling center. The first woman I have seen yet just came in to vote. They report that voting is taking place around the country.

They show a polling station in Ramadi. In the first hour only eleven people voted, all members of the security forces. The same story seems to be taking place at stations throughout the Sunni regions. Only one civilian voter has shown up in Ramadi so far.

12:20 Reuters is reporting an explosion and casualties at a polling place in West Baghdad.

12:33 -- update: Reuters reports that the explosion was a suicide car bomber. MSNBC mentions other explosions about eight in less than an hour. They don't have any specific information, but clearly combat is taking place in the western part of Baghdad.

12:45 -- the firefight seems to have ended, for now. It's at times like this when you begin to appreciate the discrepency between Fox News and the major networks. NBC has the resources to blanket the story -- Fox doesn't. MSNBC keeps cutting to correspondents in several locations and is giving us an overview of what is going on. Fox is interviewing Jesse Jackson [Jesse Jackson?!].

12:50 -- CNN shows long lines in Sadr City, a Shia area of Baghdad. The vote is heavy there. They say that turnout has been light in the Sunni areas, though. CNN has Fox's problem: not enough boots on the ground. They've been going with a lot of canned stories. Right now it's women in Iraq.

12:55 MSNBC reports explosions in Basra. Scarborough is doing a good job as anchor. Right now he has Flavia, the Democratic mouthpiece from Pennsylvania, on. She's moving the goalposts again. She says, even if there is a strong turnout it doesn't matter. To have "success" you have to have heavy turnout by even disaffected groups. I get so sick and tired of the endless spinning.

1:00 -- Geraldo is waxing enthusiastic. He's reporting heavy turnout where he is [in a mixed Shia/Sunni neighborhood in Baghdad near Fallujah with lots of joy and excitement. He says it feels like the early days of the civil rights movement. Geraldo is about to burst. He's overcome with emotion. Now he's interviewing Chalabi [Chalabi?!]. Geraldo is talking about spontaneous anti-terror demonstrations emerging at various places. He notes that there are explosions, but "that's not the news". CNN is much more downbeat. They are still talking about the west Baghdad bombing. They describe an "increased trickle" of people arriving at the voting sites.

1:10 -- Shep Smith at Fox says that there were two major explosions, both suicide bombers. One at a school in the Mansur districts leveled a checkpoint. A second one in the south destroyed the polling station. Neither resulted in civilian deaths. A dud rocket landed in Salil Square. Another went into the Tigris. He also says that American troops are away from the polling places which are guarded by Iraqi security forces.

1:15 -- CNN shows peaceful heavy polling in the Kurdish regions. Mostly women are voting early while men stand guard. The two major Kurdish parties have formed a joint candidate list. Screen shows long lines of women waiting to vote with snipers on the roof of the polling station. MSNBC is riding the bomb story hard. They report an explosion in Basra that killed a policeman. Their answer suggests that the violence seems to be escalating, but their man on site disputes this. CNN headline is wasting time talking about Clinton in Davos.

1:22 -- MSNBC military expert tells us that the security arrangements have kept the terrorists from massing or bringing heavy weapons to bear. They are using small arms, mortars, and RPG's. These create a lot of noise but do little damage. He also says that the efforts will be concentrated in Mosul and Baghdad, because that's where the TV coverage is heaviest. CNN is reporting from a polling station in Syria. They report low turnout; say that refugees are reluctant to register because they don't want to give up personal information to the government. FOX [Geraldo] is talking about how participation by women represents a breaking free from the past. They are voting for themselves, not how their government or their husbands tell them. The elections are "competitive, contested, and free."

1:30 CNN is reporting from north of Baghdad [Baquba]. The anchor says that things were chaotic, but now there are celebrating Iraqis waiting to vote. The reporter says that the majority Sunnis are coming out to vote. There is a lot of noise from the voters. Their exuberant singing drowns out the reporter. The anchor [a Brit] keeps coming back to the subject of violence, but doesn't get a satisfactory response. Now they go to Baghdad. The anchors start off by saying that the happiness on display in Baquba is not there in Baghdad and that violence is rife. Their reporter is running down the list of violent incidents in Baghdad, Basra and Mosul.

1:45 Allawi is voting in Baghdad. MSNBC points out that it was at a very secure location inside the Green Zone. CNN is talking about how the Kurds are mass voting to boost their presence in the national government.

1:53 Back from the bathroom, heated up a cup of Chai, ready for some heavy bloggery. Gotta admire Geraldo. He's a mess and gets into a lot of trouble, and you can't always trust his reporting, but he's the only reporter today who seems to be catching the enthusiasm abroad in Iraq. CNN is definitely trying to put the worst possible spin on things, even when the pictures on the screen show otherwise. They harp on and on about violence while the screen shows happy Iraqis singing and dancing. Geraldo's the other side. He admits the violence but again and again returns to the upbeat mood of the people he covers. MSNBC seems to be trying to split the middle. FOX's budget problems are showing. They keep interviewing their stable of talking heads and have few reports from the field. Having Geraldo anchor from the field is an attempt to make up for their lack of funds and personnel. It's a nice try, but the thinness of coverage shows.

2:00 -- MSNBC reports steady and increasing lines of voters in many areas, despite the continuing violence. These are a cross section of the population. CNN keeps on the violence theme. FOX is following the MSNBC line. There is continuing violence but it is not affecting the vote significantly. They are projecting a level of participation similar to that achieved in the US elections last year. Geraldo is on a high with a smile as wide as the Euphrates. Damnit I'm starting to like the guy. "A nation a'borning"-- nice phrase. Describes people turning out in droves to vote and how happy they were. He calls them heroes.

2:06 -- CNN is back among the Kurds. Huge turnouts. The screen shows people lined up and being checked before going in to vote. The reporter keeps talking about their determination to
"prevent the past" [to have enough power in the new government to be able to protect themselves.] Lots of anti-Arab sentiment. Missed the MSNBC feed.

2:11 -- FOX reports a steady flow of voters in Mosul. This is one of the places MSNBC has highlighted as a potential hotspot. There are some mortars falling from time to time, but the level of voting is rising. Fox reports a possible suicide bombing in Baghdad. MSNBC military analysts say that the violence has been ineffective. Rising turnout is a good indicator. If the "insurgents" don't do something soon, they will have lost. MSNBC is getting optimistic, FOX is exuberant, CNN is still wary, though.

2:15 -- FOX is reporting two suicide bombers in Baghdad, but the information is still sketchy. CNN is back in Baquba. The anchors describe the situation as "mixed." The reporter on the scene is more positive, though. The situation is chaotic and people seem to be making up the rules as they go. But she says, despite all the problems, "things are coming together." The picture shows women, old men, families pressing in to vote, smiles on their faces. It is very loud, and very chaotic, but also very happy.

2:25 -- FOX is proclaiming a "success" and "heavy turnout." MSNBC is moving on, now predicting that even a successful election in Iraq will have little regional effect. This, more than anything else, makes me think that FOX's assessment is right. MSNBC's eagerness to bury the story and to talk about future perils shows that they, too, see a success taking place. MSNBC's position seems to be that instability throughout the region threatens to produce ultimate victory for the Islamists. CNN goes to a press conference with the chairman of the election commission. No news here. The questions from the Arab press are all about the reluctance of people to vote and "security incidents."

2:35 -- FOX is reviewing the situation and is almost triumphal. There are scattered incidents of violence, but the insurgent attacks are not having much effect. They are not inspiring terror, they are not suppressing voting, the public mood in Iraq is optimistic. They are saying Zarqawi "needs to get a new job." He's losing. Of course, the day isn't over yet. What is being revealed here is the weakness, not the strength, of the "insurgency."

Just a thought: we are seeing the rising of the "Arab Street" and they are voting, not attacking.

Just checked the comments. A BIG THANKS TO THE GUYS AT TVNEWSER.COM FOR THE LINK! For ongoing reports on the media visit them here.

2:45 CNN is still on the violence kick. They roundup the press conference saying that officials are optimistic, "despite the continuing violence." They are interviewing the Mayor of Baghdad. They are harping on how risky it is to vote. He doesn't take the bait. He says that a vote is a vote for a secure country, for freedom, for dignity. The anchor immediately goes back on track saying that there are many reports of violence and won't that discouraage people from voting? He says no! The anchors are clearly unhappy with him. They cut off and go to a field report on violence. They are becoming Johnny One Note. CNN seems to be working overtime to try to report bad news. Their Headline News is back to talking about Clinton at Davos.

2:54 FOX reports a third suicide bomber. This might be the person with Downs Syndrome that was reported a few minutes ago on CNN who detonated himself outside a checkpoint.

MSNBC has Will Femia on talking about the bloggers' contribution. His point is that bloggers can give us a view into people's real live that the networks can't get. He is now a regular "contributor" and will be on again later today. Kudos to MSNBC for taking bloggers seriously.

3:00 MSNBC starts with with a litany of violence. Says voting is "mixed" depending on where you are. CNN has Christiane Amanpour on. She says voters are telling her they're not afraid. The anchor probes: but what does their "body language" tells you, anything different? She say's no, these people are determined. Now she's gone and they are back to a bomb by bomb account of the violence. Over at FOX Shep is reporting heavy turnout. The "big news" picture is that things "are going extremely well." "The headline is that things are going really well." Some of the polling places have had such heavy turnout that they have had to order more ballots. CNN is back in Baquba, the joyous chaos continues there. Lots of Shia women are showing up to vote. Lots of smiles and happiness. The anchor wants to know if any Sunnis are showing up. They are. They went to Baghdad to get special dispensation from the clerics to be allowed to vote. The trouble is that there are few Sunnis on the ballot. Despite the upbeat report, the anchors say that they'll be back to Baquba later to talk more about "the problems going on there."

The lineup is very clear. CNN refuses to admit anything but problems; FOX refuses to see any problems; MSNBC is trying to discuss both. All three are now talking with voters outside Iraq. Time for another bathroom break.

3:15 MSNBC is reporting from Kirkuk, where the Kurds are partying hearty. The local reporter is almost as overcome as Geraldo was to see the happyness. The anchor signs off saying that the report of happiness was unusual. The other anchor says to come back for more on the violence. FOX reports a couple more bombings, but then says this is nothing that the Iraqis had not anticipated and that it isn't having much effect. Their talking head expert is giving the Iraqis most of the credit for how smoothly things are going. This is an important point -- to emphasize that this is not a gift of the US forces, but something that Iraqis are fighting and dying for. CNN, "Iraqis are making a real statement today." MSNBC is still moving on, relentless negativity from Juliet Kayyem about the future; questioning whether the elections will confer legitimacy on the government. They are projecting about 50% turnout and say that this is "abysmal" compared to other recently liberated countries. The Sunnis will be causing problems for a long time. CNN the election is going on against "a background of fear and hope."

Here's the question: how is the public to judge what is going on in the world when the sources of information are so widely divergent?

Interesting point about MSNBC: Their civilian experts are downbeat, their military experts are optimistic.

Well guys, I'm beat! Gonna pack it in for a while. But I'll be back later today.

Damn, just when I thought I was out, they drag me back in. 3:55 am, MSNBC has Will Femia on again trying to teach the anchor how to access blogs. It looks as though he'll be coming back regularly all through the day.