The Good News Keeps on Coming

The ripples of revolution are spreading widely.

Interfax reports:

Unauthorized rally underway in Minsk

MINSK. March 25 (Interfax-West) - Members of Belarussian opposition parties and movements and entrepreneurs have joined an unauthorized rally in downtown Minsk to show their support for previously arrested opposition activists and entrepreneurial movement leaders, an Interfax correspondent reported.

Minsk special-operations police force head Yury Podobed has estimated the number of people rallying on Minsk's Oktyabrskaya square at from 300 to 400.

Read it here.

Well, that didn't take long...

Publius Pundit reports:

Belarusian demonstrators tried to rally outside the office of authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko on Friday to demand his ouster in a self-declared attempt to emulate a popular uprising in Kyrgyzstan, but they were beaten back by riot police swinging truncheons.
....
Showing he will not tolerate demonstrations like those that drove the presidents of Georgia, Ukraine and now Kyrgyzstan from power, Lukashenko sent police into the streets Friday to disperse an estimated 1,000 protesters who chanted “Down with Lukashenko!” and “Long Live Belarus!”

Police chased demonstrators along the streets of the capital, beating some with the night sticks. Minsk police spokesman Oleg Slepchenko said 34 protesters were detained for participating in an unsanctioned rally.

Read the whole thing here.

Gateway Pundit also reports on the demonstrations and has pictures: Read him here.

And in Moldova...

Novostri reports:

(RIA Novosti)-A fortnight after the elections in Moldova, it is still uncertain whether pro-western or pro-Russian forces have won, as both the incumbent authorities and opposition are claiming victory. The role of the breakaway Transdniestria is crucial in this environment not only for a settlement inside Moldova, but also for Russia's future authority in the former Soviet republics, writes a weekly magazine, Kommersant-Vlast.

The balance of forces in the region shifted after the "orange revolution" in Ukraine. If the previous Ukrainian leadership supported Russia and, accordingly, tacitly sponsored Tiraspol, the capital of Transdniestria (because Ukrainians, like Russians, form a significant part of Transdniestria's population), the new Ukrainian government apparently supports Chisinau. Wedged between the two clearly unfriendly states, the breakaway republic's leaders are seeking a way out and are trying to build bridges with the new Ukrainian government and the West. Igor Smirnov, the president of the unrecognized republic, even described a settlement with Chisinau as a top priority.

Neither the West nor Ukraine seems willing to compromise, though. This probably means the former is hoping to reenact the successful Georgian and Ukrainian scenarios to replace Smirnov with a more palatable figure.

Read the whole thing here.

Even in Mad Bobby Mugabe's terror state the effects are being felt.

The Scotsman reports:

Polls show Zimbabwean opposition is gaining strength
JANE FIELDS IN HARARE

LATEST opinion polls from Zimbabwe show President Robert Mugabe’s ruling party as only slightly in the lead with less than a week remaining before the country goes to the polls.

Some 40 per cent of Zimbabweans questioned say they intend voting for Mr Mugabe’s party, the Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF).
Another 34 per cent will choose the main opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in next Thursday’s parliamentary elections, a survey of 7,000 voters carried out by Joseph Kurebwa, a University of Zimbabwe political lecturer, showed.

The study contradicts predictions of a landslide victory for ZANU-PF and suggests that the MDC, led by the former trade unionist Morgan Tsvangirai, may yet be able to overcome months of intimidation to retain many of its parliamentary seats. Parliamentary elections in Zimbabwe in 2000 were won by ZANU-PF by only a small margin. Mr Mugabe’s party took 62 seats against 57 for the MDC.

Read it here.

And to cap it off, Claudia Rosett reports in the New York Sun:

Syrian Dissidents Find Their Voice As Lebanon Provides a Megaphone

She surveys recent writings in Syria and discerns,

glimpses of seething discontent under the totalitarian regime of Mr. Assad. They also suggest that inside Syria there is a dynamic right now in which the regime is becoming weaker, and the dissidents bolder.

A mixed bag so far. Clearly the inspirational examples of Ukraine, Georgia and Iraq are having global effect. What is not clear, however, is how the affected regimes will respond. Attempts at resistance failed in Kyrgyzstan, but so far have been successful in Belarus. Mad Bobby is almost sure to unleash massive violence if organized opposition emerges in the current election cycle, and there still is a real question as to what Assad will do in Lebanon and Syria.

AND THEN THERE'S THIS:

Once again massive demonstrations have broken out in Iran. Regime Change Iran reports:

Reports are coming in of demonstrations taking place all over Iran (Tehran, Esfhan, Tabriz, Abadan, and others) against the regime, using the soccer victory over Japan as an excuse to go into the streets. The victory is an excuse for people to go into the streets. The people can claim the are celebrating their victory while those in their midst demonstrate against the regime.

The reports say that the demonstrations are dispersed in neighborhoods all across Iran. The streets are being jammed with traffic and thousands are gathering in the center of each of these demonstrations. These traffic jams are apparently protecting the demonstrators. The reports further state that those in the center of these demonstrations can be heard making statements against the regime.

In a new development, there are calls for "armed resistance" and some are raising guns (a capital offense against the regime).

Due to the extremely high volume of traffic in the streets, the regime’s security forces are unable to send reinforcements to those areas where the demonstrations are getting more out the regime's control. Some are reporting that the security forces in many areas are frightened by the increasing size of the crowds.

Read the whole thing here.

So far the Iranian regime has been successful in containing the recurrent demonstrations that have been taking place there for several months. The size and frequency of the protests, though, seems to be increasing lately. The calls for "armed resistance" are disturbing.

There is so much potential here for dramatic results, both positive and negative. We have not yet seen the limits of the reform imperative or the scale of resistance to it. These are times of peril, but also of unbounded hope. I am an historian and can call to mind many scenarios drawn from the past. But none of them, I think, fits the current situation well. All I can do right now is to stay tuned....