Michael [Excitable] Ledeen on Iran

The Zoroastrian New Year was observed on the fifteenth by millions of Iranians, despite clerical prohibitions and attempts at intimidation by the Iranian security forces. Although the MSM largely ignored it, reports of the celebrations, which often took an anti-government tone, and the brutal tactics used to suppress the demonstrations were widely disseminated in the blogosphere. Blogger reports portrayed the excitement of the situation. I reported some of them here. But there was little followup. Reuters reported the entire thing as a night of partying that at times got a little out of hand. Nothing more.

Now Michael Excitable has picked up the story. He writes in todays NRO:

[A]ccording to Iranians with whom I have spoken, there were monster demonstrations in eleven provinces and 37 cities, and many thousands — one source said more than 30,000 — people were arrested, some only briefly, others shipped off to the infamous prisons and torture chambers of the regime. The most dramatic events took place in Shiraz, where the demonstrators directed a chant toward Washington: "Bush, you told us to rise up, and so we have. Why don’t you act?"

Which is precisely the right question. The president publicly promised the Iranian people that the United States would support them if they acted to win their own freedom, and the Iranians are now calling on Bush to make good on that promise.

Leaving aside the objectivity of Ledeen's sources -- apparently student activists in Texas -- the accounts coming out of Iran on the internet portray a night of excitement, but something far less than a full blown rebellion -- little more than the kinds of things we see in America when Boston wins the World Series or Super Bowl or whatever it was.

After taking an exaggerated view of the Iranian demonstrations, which admittedly were an occasion for anti-government protests, Ledeen expands his critique of American policy.

Bush, he argues, is too timid. The administrations pursuit of complex and sophisticated diplomatic initiatives,

...enables the terrorists and their masters to buy time, and this is a moment of enormous risk for them. Every day they remain in power encourages them, and discourages the forces of freedom in their countries. When the people of Shiraz ask President Bush "why don’t you act?" they are reflecting this reality. Carpe Diem, Mister President.

Everywhere he sees the forces of evil on the run.

Syria and Iran are tottering, and if they fall, the terror network will break into relatively impotent shards that we will be able to destroy. Forget about diplomacy, this is war. Every day we hear about plans to attack the United States directly, and every day more Americans die in Iraq. Is it not too clever by half to resort to cunning diplomacy at such a time? Is it not immoral to leave American fighting men and women in harm’s way an hour longer than is absolutely necessary?

The fires of freedom are burning all over Iran, Syria, and Lebanon. Don't stand back and admire the flames. Push the dictators in, and then cheer as free societies emerge.

Faster, confound it.

Easy boy. Down! Down!!

Dammit, we can't go around invading everyone.

Yes, there is discontent in Iran and in Syria. Yes the dictatorships are having problems. But there is little reason to believe that they will go quietly into the night. Both have large and professional armies. Both are in a position to inflict terrible damage on their citizens. The kind of military action Ledeen calls for would result in mass casualties and destruction, not so much to Americans, but to the Iranian and Syrian peoples. It is altogether reasonable to follow the course Bush is following. Look at how he is systematically depriving al Assad of his resources. If Lebanese liberation can be achieved peacefully the results will be wonderful for the Lebanese people and disasterous for Assad's regime.

As I pointed out in an earlier post Assad is not likely to survive the loss of Lebanon for long and the collapse of Syria's regime will increase the pressure on Iran. Bush is playing a sophisticated game here, but it is a determined and relentless one. There is no need to go faster. Things are moving along at a good pace already.