The Limits of Reform -- bad news from Kyrgyzstan and Belarus

The early stages of the democratic revolution went amazingly well. Tyrannical regimes were toppled by people-power in Georgia and Ukraine, by force in Iraq. Another was in retreat in Lebanon. Then Kyrgyzstan fell. Those were heady days and the democratic reform imperative seemed to be irresistable. But I kept worrying. Eventually some of the repressive regimes are going to respond by, well..., repressing the reformers. That is where we will begin to see the limits of the reform imperative.

We are at that stage now. In Belarus democratic protesters were met by force. Gateway Pundit links to the story and pictures here.

This is disturbing because several of the conditions that characterized earlier successful revolts have been met in Belarus. A central figure has emerged to challenge the government around whom diverse factions can unite. His name is Alexander Kozulin and you can read about him at Publius Pundit here. Publius also notes the strong support for democratic reform from the West. The EU has formally declared that Belarus is a dictatorship and has frozen government assets. The US has passed the Belarus Democracy Act, and Condi Rice has branded Belarus an "outpost of tyranny."

But this time the government has not rolled over in the face of protest. It is fighting back, so far successfully. It is in the coming struggle that we will test the limits of the reform imperative. Stay tuned....

Meanwhile the seemingly successful revolution in Kyrgyzstan is running into trouble. The protests themselves resulted in widespread looting and chaos and now thousands of people are marching to protest the newly-installed reform regime.

Michael Steen writing for Reuters reports:

BISHKEK, Kyrgyzstan (Reuters) - Kyrgyzstan's ousted interior minister led thousands of demonstrators toward the capital on Saturday to protest against the coup that overthrew President Askar Akayev, warning there was a risk of civil war.

The new leadership, which swept to power in the lighting coup Thursday after mass protests, declared it was firmly in control of the mountainous ex-Soviet state.

But acting President Kurmanbek Bakiev had to switch the venue of a news conference because officials heard word of a possible plot to kill him.

Read the whole thing here.

Things are not looking good. Enthusiasm for the reform government is falling. The reformers are now acting like the old repressive regime, threatening to take action against protesters. There is talk of civil war. The reformers have appealed for outside economic aid because they cannot feed the people.

Stay tuned.....