1) The Kurds have abandoned their demand for a constitutional "right of self-determination."
2) A compromise has been reached on the role of Sharia law -- it will be "a" source of legal authority, not "the" source.
3) That leaves the question of federalism and that boils down to finding an acceptable formula for the division of oil revenues.
So, in the end, it's all about oil after all.
A possible solution that is being advanced is to have the central government control the disbursement of oil revenues. Negotiators are hopeful that this will be acceptable.
The Kurds and Shiites, who account for about 70% of Iraq's population are reportedly on board for a compromise document, but the sticking point is the Sunnis. Together the Kurds and Shiites have enough representatives in the national assembly to pass a draft constitution, but a provision of the law would give the Sunnis a veto on ratification during the national referendum. And, as recently as yesterday, Sunni representatives were saying that they would not compromise on anything.
If an agreement can be reached -- well and good, but if not the assembly will have to choose between dissolution and voting another extension, at which point the whole exercise will have become a joke.
Read about it here, here, and here.
This is it guys -- time to sink or swim.
Stay tuned....
UPDATE:
The LA Times and AP are reporting:
Political groups representing Iraq's minority Sunni Arabs called yesterday for new delays in approving a national constitution, complaining that they had been cut out of final-hour negotiations between Shiite Muslims and Kurds and appealing to U.S. and U.N. officials to intervene.Read it here.
Just what these groups are, and how much influence they have, is not yet clear -- and the appeal to the US and UN to intervene sorta contradicts the whole idea of the constitution.
UPDATE:
Omar at Iraq the Model, noting the large numbers of people, particularly Sunnis, registering to vote in the ratification referendum, writes:
It seems that everyone is getting ready to say their word the on constitution and all that is missing now is, er...the constitution!Indeed!
UPDATE:
It's down to the closing minutes and still no agreement -- it seems that the Assembly will have to make a choice -- to extend for another week, to dissolve, or to adopt a partial document that leaves the essential questions hanging.
One thing seems clear -- if a document does emerge, it will not conform to US hopes going in to the process [and that, I would argue, is a good thing -- this is, after all, a constitution for Iraq, not for the US].
Stay tuned...
UPDATE:
Half an hour to go. The Shia and Kurds say they have a document ready to send to the Assembly. Sunnis say there will be another extension. Everybody's playing chicken. Who will blink?
Stay tuned.
UPDATE:
Fifteen minutes to go -- lots of smiles and handshakes. The Committee says that they have a draft ready to go. It seems that they have kicked the can down the road on some major issues -- but that is a good thing. The committee's work is done -- now the public debate can start, and that is the important one. "Federal, Democratic, Republican, Parliamentary" system is the term of the hour. Interesting. I don't see how all that fits together but am anxious to find out.
Stay tuned....
UPDATE:
They are announcing the draft. It has been submitted to the assembly. But there are problems to be worked out "over the next three days." So they have a basic document and the assembly will adopt an election law and there will be discussions over the next three days on amendments to be offered. There are three issues outstanding -- federalism, "de-Baathification" [not much commentary about that, but to the Baathists who stand to be indicted for crimes against humanity it is a HUGE issue], and how oil revenues will be distributed. These are big items, but they are resolvable.
The committee has finished its business. The assembly will now try to forge compromise amendments. Then there will be a final vote on the amended constitution and then we go to a referendum.
This is exciting stuff. A new kind of state is emerging before our eyes, and increasingly it is one crafted by the Iraqis themselves with minimal intrusion from the West. We have always hoped that Iraq would become the model for reform throughout the region -- today they took a big step toward making that a reality.
Stay tuned.
UPDATE:
Reuters is upset:
The new draft constitution contains the terminology "Islam is a main source for legislation and it is not permitted to legislate anything that conflicts with the fixed principles of its rules."
This offends secular liberals who see it as a threat to women's rights. But just how it is to work out is going to be determined in the future. For now, it recognizes other sources of law than Sharia, and it is quite vague as to what the "fixed principles" of Islamic law really are. It also does not mandate a clerical presence in the courts. So it really is a compromise, one that allows enough flexibility so that arrangements can be made down the road that all parties can live with, and that's what this exercise in constitution making is all about.
Read Reuters' story here.
RELATED:
For those who need a scorecard [and who doesn't?] WaPo has a nice article by Jefferson Morley explaining the Iraqi constitutional process and all its convolutions.
Read it here.
And, while we're here, a few comments about "deBaathification" which was specifically stated to be a sticking point by the committee, but which has been unremarked by any of the major media. The point here is that we are dealing with a tribal society here. For a generation and more a few favored clans held most of the political authority, and during that time many of them did very bad things, but now they have been displaced and their leaders are fighting literally for their lives. There is strong pressure from their victims and from international agencies to hold these people responsible for "crimes against humanity" and to bring retribution on them. These tribes will not surrender former Baathists, who are after all clan leaders, willingly to judgment. This is a major source of support for the insurgency. The demand, apparently, from many Sunni leaders, is that some provision be written into the new constitution protecting the persons and the rights of former Baathists. Perhaps demands for justice will have to be undercut in order to establish order. This is an uncomfortable subject, and I can see why the MSM and diplomats are desperate to avoid discussing it.
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