[T]he draft [constitution] has angered Arab Sunni elites by proposing a federal structure for the new democratic state. But this is in no way related to religious differences, as some Westerners nostalgiac for Saddam Hussein pretend.
The Arab Sunni elites believe that a federal structure makes it harder for them to regain, one day perhaps, the dominance they once enjoyed. A highly centralised state in which power is concentrated in Baghdad would be more vulnerable to a military coup d'etat or a fascist-style putsch through which the Sunni elites could seize power when and if the opportunity arose.
He also notes that the presumption made in the West of Sunni solidarity is not necessarily the case.
[H]ow true is the claim, made in so many articles in the Western press in the past few days, that the Sunnis are enraged at the draft? The truth is that we do not know the answer. Unlike the Shia and Kurdish representatives who were elected members of parliament, the Sunni politicians in the drafting committee were government appointees....
We shall have to wait until the referendum in October to find out whether most Sunnis share the apprehensions of the Sunni politicos in the drafting committee.
He concludes:
The Iraqi draft is not ideal. It will not transform Iraq into the Switzerland of the Middle East overnight. It includes articles that one could not accept without holding one's nose. But the fact remains that this is still the most democratic constitution offered to any Muslim nation so far.
More important, the people of Iraq have the chance to reject it if they feel it does not reflect their wishes. That, too, is a chance that few Muslim nations have enjoyed.
With the new constitution, Iraq is taking a giant leap away from despotism.
Read the whole thing here.
Omar at Iraq the Model has some pertinent observations.
He notes that not all Sunnis are opposed to federalism.
The toughest obstacle delaying getting the Sunni agreement right now is federalism or more accurately it’s generalizing federalism; the Sunni negotiators would agree to granting the Kurds the right to establish a federal state (which already exists) but they don't want that state to include Kirkuk and they don't want other provinces to have the right to form other federal states.He suggests that the intransigence of the Sunni negotiators is due to the fact that they were non-elected and don't therefore have to answer to constituencies. They have nothing to lose. He also argues that the issues that bulk so large in the arguments of the negotiators rouse little concern in the general Iraqi public. He concludes:
However, that's not what all Sunnis think; there are the tribal chiefs of Al-Anbar who announced yesterday that they have no objection to the idea of generalizing federalism and there is also the governor of Mosul who seems to be in favor of federalism and in a statement he gave a few days ago he expressed his interest in turning Mosul into a federal state without the need to include other provinces in that state since Mosul alone was one of the four (or was that five?) counties from which modern Iraq was established after the fall of the Ottoman empire.
Bottom line, I think that even if the draft gets approved by the National Assembly tonight or tomorrow, we're still going to face more obstacles with this constitution that focused on unnecessary details; these details were introduced to please politicians and serve partisan ambitions while the interests of the people came only in the 2nd place and believe me, till this moment no one can know for sure if Iraqis are going to accept or reject the constitution, maybe the Kurdish people are most likely to vote with "yes" but the Shaet and Sunni people's position is not definite yet and that particularly applies to the Sunni whose current spokesmen do not necessarily represent the mainstream Sunni opinion.
Read the whole thing here.
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