Things Fall Apart

Things are not looking good. The military situation in Iraq has bogged down -- troops have gone into a defensive crouch and local commanders openly talk about troop draw-downs blatantly contradicting their commander-in-chief who vows to "stay the course."

The constitutional process appears to be dead in the water. Repeated postponements and delays have reduced the deliberations to a joke, no longer creditable either in Iraq or America. And as that process fails so does the entire rationale for America's involvement in Iraq.

To make things worse, as talk of withdrawal mounts Iraqis begin to believe that once again the US will revert to its historic pattern of intervention and abandonment, leaving out allies to suffer the horrific consequences of our disengagement. Increasingly they sense that America cannot be relied on.

Constitutional wrangling has another unhappy consequence. The Iraqi population is increasingly disaffected from a leadership that seems to care only about maneuvering for political advantage. Faction fighting has broken out, splintering the Shiite majority and adding to the chaos promoted by the "insurgents." The possibility of civil war looms ever larger as the violence escalates. One asks, just how much of this can the Iraqi people tolerate?

In the US the anti-war movement is gaining steam, backed by a palpable push from the mainstream media. The mood is similar to that of the post-Tet period in the Vietnam conflict when journalistic elites had finally made up their minds that the war had to end and nearly every story reflected that judgment. Prominent members of the President's party are defecting and the left is on the offensive. Yeats' lines come irresistably to mind:

The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all convictions, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

A dream is dying, and the President, sequestered on his ranch in Crawford, seems insensible to the crisis that is building at home and in Iraq.

Matters are no better on other fronts. The disarmament talks in Korea are going nowhere, nor are the EU negotiations with Iran. One suspects that there is no way that nuclear proliferation can be stopped or even significantly slowed. Despite excellent economic performance in the US the rise of gas prices has produced in the public a sullen anger that is threatening to disrupt the domestic political process with unforseeable results. Both major political parties are fractured, conducting their own internal civil wars -- wars that will only escalate in coming months as factions maneuver for advantage in the coming election cycles.

Creedence has just shuffled up on my I-pod. The song is "Bad Moon Rising."

How appropriate!

It's a black mood I'm in this morning. I need to go for a walk.