Maryland Politics -- Cardin vs. Steele

Ben Cardin's win over Kweisi Mifume sets up an interesting confrontation between him and Republican candidate Michael Steele. John McIntyre over at RCP analyzes the race this way:

The conventional wisdom for Maryland has always been that an Mfume win is what the GOP needed to really put this traditionally Democratic seat in play. Two weeks ago, however, I speculated that a Cardin win may lay the foundation for the same path to victory Gov. Bob Ehrlich followed in 2002. Now 2002 was a very different year in tone and tenor for Republicans, and at the end of the day, the current macro-negativity toward President Bush and the GOP is what makes Cardin the clear favorite here in the general. However, Steele should not be counted out in this race.

An unenthusiastic black vote was a crucial element to Ehrlich's win four years ago, and the rejection of Mfume will not help the Democrats in that regard. So not only will Cardin likely be looking at smaller than otherwise black turnout, Steele as the first African-American to win statewide in MD, is perfectly positioned to challenge for a large portion of Maryland's sizable African-American electorate. A smaller black turnout overall, coupled with Steele perhaps capturing 30% of the statewide African-American vote, could make this a very interesting race election night.

Read it here.

I think McIntyre places too much weight on Bush's unpopularity and not enough on race. Bush is rising in the polls and Steele has been careful to distance himself from Bush and the national Republican leadership. The key to this contest -- remember this is Maryland -- will be race. Polls show that Steele might be able to peel off a significant proportion of Black voters, but it's not likely to be the 30% McIntyre hopes for. At the same time he's going to lose a lot of White voters to Cardin. So, low Black turnout means that Steele will gain a small number of Black votes and lose a much larger number of White votes. This is not good, but it's Maryland.