The Perils of Innumeracy

Americans, and particularly American journalists, are predisposed to mistrust any information fed to them by major corporations or the government. But they often display a wondrous naivete and credulousness when presented with information provided by activist organizations, particularly those of the Left. The problem becomes acute when the information is presented in numerical terms. Such is the case with recent reports of a widespread and precipitous drop in household incomes since President Bush came to office. These reports, pushed by left-wing activists and Democrat hacks have been widely reported in both the print and broadcast media, and accepted as truth by many Americans. They were anything but.

Stuart Buck and Megan McArdle discuss the methodological problems embodied in the report -- problems that invalidate its major conclusions -- and note a larger problem, that of innumeracy:

Every year, scores of fledgling journalists pour out of liberal arts programs. Though many will need to pick through mountains of statistics in search of the truth, few have been taught the skills to do it.

They quickly become victims of advocacy groups pushing skewed statistics. Through ignorance, they may also start manufacturing their own flawed numbers. Since number-crunching beats (such as business and finance) are generally viewed as a tedious waystation en route to more interesting beats, few are enthusiastic about developing these skills. And their editors may not be in any position to help them.

The problem is compounded by the fact that journalists who do know how to read a balance sheet, run a regression, or analyze economic data, can generally get a job that pays a lot more than journalism. Some stay in the field out of love for their work (journalism is a really great job), but in our experience some of the best flee to greener pastures.

Even worse, as mathematician John Allen Paulos is fond of pointing out, Americans are often too innumerate to analyze statistics printed in the newspaper. America’s schools haven’t given its citizens any more ability than its journalists to analyze the information that floods our lives. We would call it a case of the blind leading the blind, but the comparison is inappropriate. Blind people know they can’t see.

Read the whole thing here.