Austin Bay on Lebanon -- Operation Bluebat II?

Austin Bay comments on the media war in Lebanon and what comes next.

The pro-democracy demonstrators have the edge in numbers and media sizzle -- they dominate the camera war. Virtually every news magazine and Web site features a raven-haired Levantine beauty demanding democracy and a Syrian military pull-out. The pro-Syrian marches seem pitifully dated -- angry, mustachioed men, assault rifles, chants of "Death to America."

Hezbollah's and Syria's media advisers don't realize that the Palestinian and Iraqi elections finally exposed the "myth of the Arab Street" as utter fascist pulp. After the Iraqi elections the chest-pounding thug act doesn't scare people anymore. We know the real Arab street would rather head for the Honda dealership.
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But what if massed tanks replace mass rallies or gunfire replaces rhetoric?

I don't think massed tanks are likely. U.S. and Iraqi forces on Syria's eastern border and Turkey's bitter dislike for Syria's Assad regime remind Damascus that overt military action invites overt military response. [Precisely the point I made below in the Assad post, but more elegantly stated]
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Seeding regional turmoil and war via Lebanon's Hezbollah gives Iran leverage in Lebanon, Palestine and Syria. To lose Hezbollah reveals the mullahs' increasing weakness.

For this reason, gunfire between armed factions remains a very real possibility -- Iran and Syria benefit if the democratic surge is blunted and Lebanon spirals into factional war.
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That means the democrats' international supporters must have contingency plans to stop a bloodbath and ensure security -- a tough thought, but the plans exist. [emphasis mine] Operation Bluebat, the so-called "not war but like war" U.S. Lebanon intervention of 1958, has been critiqued for decades. It was hasty and poorly coordinated. To be successful, a Bluebat 2005 must swiftly place strong forces in crucial areas to reinforce Lebanese Army peacekeeping efforts. Special operations troops must be in contact with all factions. Iranian and Syrian intelligence nodes must be quickly eliminated.

Risky? Of course -- it's last resort. Better to deflate Hezbollah with diplomacy.

The Colonel has a lot of interesting things to say. Check him out here.