Austin Bay on the Ramifications of Iraq

Austin Bay, as usual, has some interesting and perceptive comments to make on recent events in Southwest and Central Asia. He feels that the most important outcome of Bush's Iraq campaign was psychological. He writes:

The problem [for the Islamists] is that there is no longer any widespread confidence, even in the places like Lebanon, that terror tactics will prevail. To that extent even the most heinous attacks, like the carbomb which recently killed more than 100 in Iraq, have lost their bite. Psychologically speaking, the greatest contribution of the Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns is that they have shattered terrorism's myth of invincibility. The terrorists embarked on a maximum effort to dislodge the US from Iraq, employing every weapon of violence, political maneuver and propaganda they could muster and came up much the worse for wear. This lesson has not been lost to public perception and has emboldened dissidents all across the region.

I agree. This is what Bin Laden's "strong horse" strategy was all about. The problem for us is that the terrorists have to regain their credibility and the best way for them to do so is to launch another spectacular attack on the "far enemy" [the US mainland].