The Complexities of Lebanon

The situation in Lebanon is getting very complex, very fast; and dangerous too.

The first of the great "Color" uprisings, Ukraine's "Orange" revolution, was presented to the world in relatively simple terms. It was the uprising of western democrats against Russian-backed tyrants who had rigged elections and tried to assassinate the western candidate. Things went fairly smoothly. The "bad guys" moved aside and the "legitimate voice of the people" prevailed.

This revolution, far more than those held the following month in Iraq, provided inspiration to peoples throughout the world. Freedom in Ukraine was not the gift of a foreign power, but resulted from the actions and determination of the people themselves. It defined the expectations of people elsewhere; protests, resignations, international pressure on the anti-democratic forces, and ultimately freedom followed by legal actions against the tyrants and their minions.

When Lebanese citizens, consciously imitating the Ukraine experience, staged their own "Red and White" demonstrations things seemed to be following the Ukraine template. Massive protests, world-wide publicity, resignations, international pressure being brought on Assad to accommodate the protesters.... But then, things began to go wrong.

Rather than caving Assad began to play for time. On Saturday he announced a gradual withdrawal of the roughly 14,000 Syrian troops in Lebanon, but set no timetable. Then on Monday he agreed to move troops east to the Bekaa valley at the end of the month. But even with this withdrawal troops would remain on Lebanese territory only a few hours from Beiruit and there was no response to international demands that he remove the extensive Syrian intelligence network in Lebanon.

Then Hizb'allah, the Shiite militia, which has its strongest base among Palestinian immigrants, began to organize counter demonstrations. These started small but grew to proportions that dwarf anything the democratic protesters could muster. Here's an ABC account of today's massive demonstration in Beiruit.

BEIRUT, Lebanon Mar 8, 2005 — Nearly 500,000 pro-Syrian protesters waved flags and chanted anti-American slogans in a central Beirut square Tuesday, answering a nationwide call by the militant Shiite Muslim Hezbollah group for a demonstration to counter weeks of massive rallies demanding Syrian forces leave Lebanon.

Organizers handed out Lebanese flags and directed the men and women to separate sections of the square. Loudspeakers blared militant songs urging resistance to foreign interference. Demonstrators held up pictures of Syrian President Bashar Assad and signs saying, "Syria & Lebanon brothers forever."

Other placards read: "America is the source of terrorism"; "All our disasters are from America"; "No to American-Zionist intervention; Yes to Lebanese-Syrian brotherhood."

Read the whole thing here.

Soft power has hit a roadblock.

As the BBC notes:

what is going on in Lebanon is not just a re-run of the peaceful revolutions in Ukraine or Georgia. This is a lot more dangerous, and people in Syria and Lebanon are a lot more scared.

Read their journalists' harrowing account here.

The stakes could not be higher. If serious violence breaks out thousands, maybe tens of thousands of Lebanese might die. And the repercussions will be felt throughout the region. If Ukraine set in motion a chain of freedom movements, the collapse of Lebanon into chaos might mean the end to the freedom imperative. The transformation of the Middle East will be brought to a halt.

And then there are the foreign entanglements. Hizb'allah has strong ties both to Iran and to Palestine as well as to Syria. Delicate negotiations between Israel and Palestine could be derailed if Lebanon explodes. Iran will certainly try to make as much trouble in Lebanon as possible to divert attention from itself. Russia, traditionally an ally of Syria, might get involved. France will certainly get involved. Already France is moving commando forces into the Eastern Mediterranean [link here].

And then there is the question of US involvement.

This morning President Bush reiterated his demand that Syria remove all its troops and intelligence services from Lebanon, and do so quickly. He said:

The Lebanese people have heard the speech by the Syrian president. They've seen these delaying tactics and half measures before.

The time has come for Syria to fully implement Security Council Resolution 1559. All Syrian military forces and intelligence personnel must withdraw before the Lebanese elections for those elections to be free and fair.
....
The Lebanese people have the right to determine their future free from domination by a foreign power. The Lebanese people have the right to choose their own parliament this spring free of intimidation.
....
Today I have a message for the people of Lebanon: All the world is witnessing your great movement of conscience. Lebanon's future belongs in your hands. And by your
courage Lebanon's future will be in your hands.

The American people are on your side. Millions across the Earth are on your side. The momentum of freedom is on your side. And freedom will prevail in Lebanon.

So Assad is toughening up and Bush is holding firm. If the situation in Lebanon deteriorates much more look for US forces to be repositioned along the Syrian border. Will simply the threat of US intervention be sufficient? I doubt it.