Irrational Exuberance?

People in the Middle East seem to be getting a bit giddy over the prospects for democratic reform.

AP Reports:

What happened in Lebanon this week, analysts say, is the beginning of a new era in the Middle East, one in which popular demand pushes the momentum for democracy and people's will can no longer be disregarded.
....
"What happened in Lebanon conforms with our hopes for every Arab country," said Michel Kilo, a Syrian intellectual. "It was a rehearsal for a peaceful popular movement that unfolded right before our eyes."

There has been,

a string of democratic steps in the Arab world, including elections in Iraq and by the Palestinians, and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's promise to allow multi-candidate presidential elections.

But the forcing out of Lebanon's government sets a very different precedent in a region where freedom of speech is muzzled, human rights activists are jailed and sons either succeed or are being groomed to succeed their fathers.

"For the first time in the history of the Arab world, a country's policy has come face-to-face with the will of the people who went down to the street and said: 'We don't want you,'" said Dalal al-Bizri, a Cairo-based Lebanese sociologist. "The minimum feeling among Arab masses now will be: 'Are the Lebanese better than us?'" she said....

[W]ith television making people power visible to all, "it's a phenomenon that will catch on the way music video clips have caught on," said al-Bizri.
....
Dawood al-Shirian, a Saudi talk show host on Dubai TV, had a warning for Arab governments, pointing to Ukraine's Orange Revolution: "Either they embrace the orange, or they will find themselves slipping on the peels of bananas."

Read the whole thing here.

All of this is quite exciting, but I fear that the oft-expressed faith in "people power" might be misplaced. The romantic notion that people in the streets can force a change in regime and institute a new era of freedom certainly has some validity, as has been shown in Iraq and Ukraine and so far in Lebanon, but things could change quite rapidly.

As the article notes several potential problems lie ahead. Lebanon in many ways is more free than many other Arab countries and is thus atypical, you cannot assume that what works there will work elsewhere. Violent and determined government resistance could quickly puncture regional optimism. In places like Egypt and Yemen there is little opportunity for protest and the government quickly stifles any opposition that arises.

And people power is quite limited unless it is backed by hard power. One can imagine how Saddam Hussein would have reacted to people power if he were not languishing in a cell. Assad still might unleash his military against the Lebanese protesters and probably would if there were not nearly 150,000 US troops immediately to his east.

We certainly wish the protesters well, but their ultimate success, I fear, will depend more on the actions and policies emanating from Washington than on the enthusiasm broadcast from the streets of Beirut.

Fortunately, the US government seems to have the will to see this thing through to the end. President Bush has already called upon Assad to withdraw both troops and intelligence agents from Lebanon. Condi Rice is bringing heat. AP reports:

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Tuesday called for free and fair elections in Lebanon following the surprising resignation of the pro-Syrian government and stressed the need for polling independent of "contaminating influences." Rice blamed terrorists operating in Syria for last week's suicide bombing in Tel Aviv.

Speaking to reporters after an international conference on Palestinian security, Rice said Syrians must withdraw some 15,000 troops and their security services from Lebanon. "The pressure of the international community is quite palpable on Syria," she said. "They really should get about living up to their international obligations."

The nation's top diplomat said the dismantling of terrorist militias in southern Lebanon would be critical to any forward steps in the region. "There can't continue
to be strikes from Southern Lebanon," she said.

Read it here.

It doesn't take a weatherman to see which way the wind is blowing, and the always astute Hillary Clinton is running before the wind. Devlin Barrett of AP reports:

Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton called Tuesday for tougher punishment against Syria, saying the country was aggressively supporting terrorism in the "dangerous neighborhood" of the Middle East....

"I've been particularly troubled by the Syrians' aggressive posture," said Clinton. "We need to send a very clear message that we will not tolerate what we believe to be and have reason to know is the continuing support for terrorism that comes out of Syria and Iran."

Read it here.

Aside from it implications for the next presidential election in the US Hillary's statement and similar ones by other prominent members of Congress are immensely important because they are in effect granting President Bush a blank check to deal with Syria. Bush has already established beyond any doubt his willingness to use hard power. He is the "strong horse."

Assad knows this and is feeling the heat. He's in a terrible pickle. If he caves to pressure it is unlikely that he will be able to maintain control of Syria, and if he does not he is likely to see a buildup of US troops on his border. Right now he's playing for time. Today he promised to withdraw troops but said:

"It (withdrawal) should be very soon and maybe in the next few months. Not after that. I can't give you a technical answer. The point is the next few months," he told Time magazine.

That brought an immediate response from Sen. Richard Lugar to the effect that,

The world community is going to insist upon a rather rapid acceleration of that timetable...."

Assad also neglected to mention his intelligence forces in Lebanon, an omission that was noted in Washington.

U.S. Senator Joseph Biden, of Delaware, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, estimated Syria also has 500 security police in Lebanon and said they are effectively running the Lebanese government.

"They've got to get out too," Biden said.

Assad then played his final [I hope] card.

Assad, who has expressed concerns Washington might eventually resort to military action against his country, said earlier that a total Syrian troop withdrawal must be linked to peace with its arch-enemy Israel.

This is not just the old Arab argument that nothing can be accomplished unless the Israel problem is solved. It is also an implied threat that action against Syria would be dangerous for Israelis. That will carry very little weight in Washington.

Read about it here.