Lebanon update -- the plight of Bashar

Poor Bashar al Assad. He really isn't cut out for this sort of thing. Look at the sequence of events that have brought us to the current state of affairs in Lebanon.

In the wake of the US invasion of Iraq, Assad sheltered the remnants of Saddam's command and Baathist party structure and allowed them to conduct operations against the US forces from within Syria. Consequently the Bush administration became convinced that Assad had to be dealt with and neutralized.

The emergence of a coherent and determined opposition movement in Lebanon, largely inspired by Ukraine, created an opportunity to do so. In normal times such a movement would have been impossible, but the presence of a large American military force in the region changed the range of possibilities. The US effectively immobilized Syria's armed forces. Any move against the Lebanese opposition would invite US military strikes against Syria. So, Assad turned to his intelligence forces and simply tried to behead the opposition. That, however, backfired. Hariri became a martyr and the opposition to Syrian control widened and deepened.

As the protests grew and were widely publicized around the world the legitimacy of Syria's occupation rapidly began to crumble. There was little Assad could do. Bush's diplomatic team achieved miracles. The US formed a common cause with France [so much for those idiots who said that the US-Europe relations had been irreparably damaged] and began to pressure Assad. One by one potential allies turned their back on Syria. Most damaging was his unanimous rejection by members of the Arab League. Throughout the Middle East and indeed around the world Syria's occupation of Lebanon was delegitimized.

Desperately, Assad played for time. He made a few cosmetic concessions and became more than a little vague when pressed for a timetable for withdrawal. Stripped of military and diplomatic options he embarked on a two-pronged effort to retrieve some control over the situation. His allies in Hizbollah demonstrated in an attempt to delegitimize the democratic option. That was trumped by a much larger democratic counter-demonstration. Assad could no longer claim that Syrian presence was condoned by a majority of Lebanese.

Under Assad's direction the pro-Syrian puppet government in Lebanon resigned, was reappointed, and then offered to allow the opposition some say in making up a new government. This attempt to co-opt the opposition failed miserably as the opposition refused all offers.

Nearly every option has failed. The military is useless, the intelligence services assassinations and attempts at intimidation only make things worse, diplomacy has met with uniform rejection even from former allies, the political offers have been rebuffed; all that remains is Hizbollah.

Led by the US western powers are moving quickly to neutralize Hizbollah, the last option remaining to Assad. The EU Parliament declared Hizbollah to be a "terrorist organization" thus legitimizing a cutoff of its funding. And then, as pressure on the organization mounts, Bush extends them an offer.

Reuters reports:

President Bush held out the prospect of legitimacy for the Lebanese guerrilla group Hizbollah on Tuesday by saying it can prove it is not a terrorist organization by laying down its arms. U.S. officials have said they could accept a political role for Hizbollah in Lebanon if it disarmed.

Read it here.

Simultaneously, the opposition in Beirut has joined the chorus.

Addressing the throng Monday in central Beirut’s Martyrs Square, just steps away from where brother is buried, Bahiya Hariri, a deputy from the southern city of Sidon, reached out to Nasrallah and Hezbollah, crediting them with leading a campaign to drive Israeli troops from southern Lebanon.

“Let us merge the two struggles into one,” she said, “resistance to occupiers and the construction struggle to build Lebanon.” [from Publius Pundit]

Walid Jumblatt, the Druze leader, echoed Bush's demands for early withdrawal. He,

warned against procrastination in Syria’s ongoing withdrawal from Lebanon, saying the Syrian army and intelligence apparatus must be out of Lebanon altogether before the spring elections. “The elections must not be held under Syrian army bayonets. They have to be free from intimidation.” [ditto].

Raja al Assan, at The Lebanese Bloggers considers Hizbollah's options:

I see two options for Hizballah. The first is conceding to this overwhelming show of political force displayed by the opposition. The second is continuing in its attempts to divide its large but fragile political foe - maybe through more drastic means.

On the other hand, if the opposition does manage to maintain its unity by sticking to those three basic demands prior to joining any negotiations, I do not think that even President Lahoud will be able to withstand the pressure that is building against him.

Read it here.

To me it looks as if the opposition's unity is solid. The Angry Arab thinks otherwise. He writes:

[T]hose demonstrators represent [only] one of the many Lebanons that are competing nowadays. Let us just not reduce the many Lebanons to one side, or one party, or one leader. There are many Lebanons, and many Lebanese with different, nay divergent, visions--if that is the word, or maybe fantasy or mirage--of the future Lebanon.)
...
The massive demonstration today only made me more worried, and more nervous about the future of Lebanon. Again, it takes very little to trigger sedition in the country. Just imagine what would happen if assassinations and counter-assassinations are perpetrated. With sticks and rocks, they will fight.
...
I find no heroes in Lebanon. Never have. Former prime minister Salim Huss is trying without an success to chart a "third way". But he is too weak and too nice for a place like Lebanon.

When you think about it, this is Assad's only chance. If the opposition begins to fight among themselves he has a chance to survive. If not, he's toast.

It appears that Assad is beginning to crumble under the pressure. Approximately one-third of Syrian troops have been withdrawn from Lebanon [although some seem to have been repositioned into the Bekaa Valley], and there were reports yesterday that intelligence offices in Beirut were being closed.

Tony at Across the Bay asks:

Now Syria is leaving. How will Hizbullah react? Will they continue along the lines of their pro-Syrian rally, hoping to maintain the status quo as the "praetorian guard" of the Syrians, or will they fully play Lebanese politics? The ball is in their court now. Let's wait and see. But if this opposition rally says anything today it says that the Lebanese won't be intimidated.

This is part of a terrific post on the demonstrations and counter-demonstrations we witnessed in the past week. Read the whole thing here.

Now here are some questions to ponder.

1) "How long can Assad survive having lost Lebanon?" Probably not long.

1) And if Syria is taken out of the equation, where does that leave Iran?

Think about it.