Maryland Politics -- Demography is Destiny

There has been a lot of attention this week on census projections showing that Texas has now become a "non-white" [I know, that's a horribly inaccurate and demeaning term, but it's the one officially approved] majority state [after New Mexico, California and Hawaii]. Ignored in the hullabaloo was the large east coast concentration of non-whites. The District of Columbia, for instance is 70% non-white.

Recent population shifts have had an impact on areas around the District, especially the Maryland suburbs.

The Baltimore Sun notes that,

More than four in 10 Marylanders are minorities, as Latinos, Asians and blacks flock to the Baltimore and Washington suburbs, accounting for much of the state's overall growth in population in recent years.

What is most impressive is just how quickly this change has taken place.

In 1990, minorities - which include all people except non-Hispanic whites - made up 31 percent of Maryland's population, according to census data. The recent growth has put Maryland on par with four other states nationwide with minority populations of about 40 percent - Mississippi, Georgia, New York and Arizona.

And in some counties the shift is especially dramatic.

In Howard County, for example, the white population fell by 1,243, but the Asian population grew by 2,067.

In Baltimore County, while the white population continued a trend of decline, the black population rose to 182,831, an increase of 29,608 - or 19 percent - since 2000.

In Baltimore City, the only major groups to gain in numbers were Hispanics and Asians. About 11,216 Asian residents call the city home, along with 13,574 Hispanics.

Anne Arundel County showed continued Hispanic and black growth, with the Latino population rising from 12,902 in 2000 to 16,767 in 2004 - a 30 percent increase.

What is driving this rapid change?

Dunbar Brooks, a demographer at the Baltimore Metropolitan Council, said relative housing affordability has helped drive the influx to the suburbs.

"I call it the combined Baltimore-Washington effect," he said. "Washington is an employment magnet, but we have cheaper housing than the Washington area, so our suburbs are viewed as an affordable place to live."

In addition, families have chosen Baltimore's suburbs over the city in recent decades because of crime and troubled schools, he said.

Read the article here.

I suspect that there are larger forces at work than just the Washington job magnet. Similar phenomena are being observed in New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania and in the NY and Connecticut suburbs where many old English and German towns are now Hispanic enclaves. And in all these areas the same theme is heard time and again in interviews with the migrants. They want accessibility to the jobs in the region, but don't want to put up with the conditions of city life. And in each of these areas the dominant economic factor has been the price of housing.

What is fascinating in the case of Maryland, is that this sudden rise in "non-white" [that term again] residents has corresponded with a statewide upsurge in Republican voting -- one that has made the GOP competitive throughout the state for the first time in decades. And, perhaps most surprisingly, Baltimore has elected its first white mayor in a long time. Hmmmm!

Something's happening here...; what it is ain't exactly clear.

Stay tuned....