Recent years have witnessed the gradual growth in the public sphere of a considerable margin of freedom in dialogue on political, social, religious, economic and civil rights issues. For decades such discussions were restricted to closed and tightly controlled circles and entirely taboo in public.
That this margin of freedom now exists, and is steadily expanding, does not mean that red lines have vanished or that openness to opposing opinions and the exchange of ideas have become firmly entrenched. Nor does it negate the way in which official political and religious rhetoric impacts on all areas of life. It does, however, suggest a trend towards openness and plurality and a growing willingness on the part of the ruling elite and religious establishment to treat opposing views less autocratically.
Political repression continues, as the detention of reform activists Ali Al-Domani, Matruk Al-Faleh and Abdullah Al-Hammad, and the lengthy blacklist of people banned from travelling, writing or teaching in universities clearly attests. Yet to ignore qualitative improvements with respect to freedom of opinion and expression is to deliberately blind oneself to the reality of what is taking place in Saudi Arabia.
Political power remains firmly in the hands of the ruling elite, and religious authority in the hands of the Wahabist movement, but there are also signs of change.
People in Saudi Arabia today are talking about whether women should be accorded full civil and political rights and not whether they should be allowed to drive. NGOs, human rights organisations and intellectual forums, on which the government keeps close tabs, are calling for broader public participation in government, the popular election of at least a portion of Shura Council members and broader powers for the Shura Council and municipal councils, including the power to scrutinise public budgets. While the political will necessary to secure action is still lacking, and obstacles within the royal family and the religious establishment formidable, the momentum being generated by discussion is extending throughout society. This, combined with recent changes in the regional and international context, is creating a climate conducive to reform.
The potential for significant change exists, he notes, but whether or not it comes rests with the developing urban middle class. At this point it is still uncertain just how much these affluent and educated elements of the population really desire change.
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