Day By Day

Saturday, August 13, 2005

The Situation in Iraq

Tom Popyk summarizes the situation in Baghdad on Iraq Hack: A Reporter's Blog

Iraq's Transitional Administrative Law (article 61) calls for the immediate dissolution of the National Assembly, with new elections to be held by December 15th. Constitution drafters have up to another year to work thing out.

Now, if they reach agreement, the constitution goes to referendum, where Iraqi voters must must ratify the charter by a simple majority, AS LONG AS two-thirds of the voters in three or more governorates do not reject it.

This essentially gives the Kurds, and Shias, a veto.

If the referendum fails -- same as if they missed the August 15th deadline.

So, as we hit the final stretch, its no surprise to see some very heavy lobbying -- from Shias and Kurds strengthening their demands, Sunnis rejecting the powers that would weaken their position even further, and the U-S pushing for all this to be resolved, according to schedule, so troop withdrawal and exit strategies can be claimed in time for mid-terms.

But, over the weekend, Baghdad's Shia-controlled provincial council threw out the city's outspoken American appointed, former Canadian resident, Sunni, Mayor -- essentially at gunpoint. The national government shrugged their shoulders. Inshallah.

Now, the head of the Badr Brigades, a large, armed, Shia militia aligned with one of the country's main islamic parties, is demanding the oil rich Shia south be granted the same level of autonomy granted to the potentially oil-rich Kurdish north. Hadi al-Amiri appeared before thousands of supporters in the holy city of Najaf. Its is a not too subtle threat. The Badr Brigades, despite Shia leaders' assurances of their disarmament, has been accused of imposing islamic order, and vigilante peace, in places like Basra.

Of course, the Kurds still have their peshmurga militia.

And the Sunni insurgency isn't slowing down.

The point of all this is that constitutions, and democracy, are supposed to protect minority rights as well as majority rule.

The question now, is how much of Iraq's constitution will reduce the former, to ensure that latter -- either regionally or nationally, isn't imposed by force instead of law.

It's crunch time, folks.

This isn't about democracy, or freedom. It is about power.

And all those velvet gloves are coming off.

That about covers it. He's right -- this is the crunch time. American public opinion is already turning against the war, and the only argument that keeps the whole thing together is the promise that progress is being made toward a free and democratic Iraq. Failure to put together a workable constitution would destroy that promise and with it public support for our involvement. Bush is unlikely to back down, but Congress sure will.


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