Syria's Quest for Legitimacy in Lebanon

The Syrian occupation of Lebanon was delegitimized by international opinion in the wake of the tremendously successful democracy demonstrations. The low point came when not only the US, but the EU, the UN and the major Arab states unanimously demanded a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon. But rather than crumbling, Assad has been playing for time and trying to recapture some legitimacy.

The key to recovery has been an alliance with Hizbollah, the terrorist organization that claims to represent Lebanon's Shiite minority. Last week Hizbollah staged a massive demonstration thanking Syria for maintaining order in Lebanon and denouncing outside [US] interference in Lebanese affairs. Syrian forces have been withdrawn from many parts of Lebanon, only to be repositioned in Shiite areas controlled by Hizbollah. Syrian intelligence forces have been repositioned into parts of Beirut dominated by Hizbollah. This provides a means for Syria to claim that it is complying with the demands of the international community while still maintaining control of the situation.

Syria and Hizbollah unite in portraying the democracy opposition as stooges for the US and Israel, thus seeking to delegitimize them. Both insist that the government of Omar Karami, a Syrian stooge who earlier resigned but was reappointed, is completely legitimate and the opposition is therefore trying to undermine a legitimate government. Both point to upcoming elections in May saying that this will establish once and for all who is the legitimate governing authority in Lebanon. The hope is that Syria, through its intelligence forces, will be able to control the outcome of the elections as they have all previous elections.

This has fooled nobody in the West. The US and France have taken the lead in insisting that no elections can be considered legitimate so long as Syria's troops and intelligence services are still operating in Lebanon. The EU, led by France, has declared Hizbollah to be a terrorist organization, an action which undermines its legitimacy and opens the way for cutting off its major sources of funding.

In response Hizbollah, looking for a source of legitimacy, suggested that Jimmy Carter be called in to oversee the upcoming elections, knowing that Carter has in the past turned a blind eye to overt manipulation of elections by government thugs. The idea seems to have caught on. Today's Naharnet reports that,

Karami Accepts U.S. ex-President Jimmy Carter to Monitor Lebanon's Elections

Premier-Designate Omar Karami has reversed Lebanon's official rejection of international observers to monitor the parliamentary elections in spring, welcoming a team headed by U.S. ex-President Jimmy Carter to do the job....

This was the first time that that the Beirut government publicly dropped its contention that allowing foreign observers to monitor the April-May elections was a violation of Lebanon's sovereignty although various opposition factions and the Maronite Church have been insisting on international observation.

Karami has also expressed his doubts that elections can be held or a legitimate new government be formed if the democratic opposition continues to..., well..., oppose him. In other words, only if the pro-democracy demonstrators shut up and accept continued Syrian control of Lebanon can legitimacy be restored.

And so it goes..., and so it goes..., keep tuned. Read the whole thing here.