Day By Day

Tuesday, December 13, 2005

Pennsylvania Politics -- Santorum Creeps Back, Scranton Looks Strong

The latest Quinnipiac Poll results are out and they have a mixed message for Santorum, who still trails Bobby Casey by double digits.

The AP headlines the idea that support for President Bush is hurting Santorum, but that is unlikely to be much of a factor next fall. If things go well in Iraq, as I expect they will, Bush will no longer be a liability. Santorum is playing it cagey. A couple of weeks ago, when Bush spoke at
Tobyhanna, Santorum was conspicuous by his absence, but this weekend he, along with Sen. Specter, attended Bush's address in Philadelphia.

The poll shows that Santorum still trails Casey by 12 percentage points [50 to 38] but that is a marked improvement over the last poll, taken in October, in which he trailed by eighteen points. Santorum's approval rating also rose from 43 to 48% over the same period. He's beginning to creep back into contention and there's a long way to go before the election.

Casey's strong numbers might also be illusory. His disapproval numbers are at an unrealistic 6%. This figure simply shows that nobody knows anything bad about him. But nobody knows anything good about him either, except that his dad was one of the all time good guys. At some point Casey is going to have to stop being the invisible candidate and start taking stands on issues. And every time he takes a stand he will alienate some portion of the electorate. What I'm saying is that these current poll results are worse than useless. They are actually misleading.

Incumbent Democrat Ed Rendell continues to lead all potential Republican challengers for the governorship. The situation on the Republican side, though, is beginning to clear up. State Sen. Jeff Piccola [my favorite] is fading fast as is businessman Jim Panyard, and the race now is a two-man contest between Lynn Swann and former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton III. Both of them now trail Rendell by about 12 percentage points, which will diminish once the Republicans unite behind a single candidate. Rendell is not popular in Pennsylvania and is certainly vulnerable.

Swanny is a political novice, and is running strong simply on the basis of name recognition. Scranton is the probable nominee. Right now for both Swann and Casey name recognition is enough. The voters just aren't paying much attention yet. As they do things will begin to sort out and the race will narrow.

Things will start to get interesting soon. Stay tuned....

The AP story is here.

The poll results are here.

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