Day By Day

Thursday, March 30, 2006

Pennsylvania Politics -- The Horserace Narrows

Rick Santorum has started to close the gap with Bob Casey in the latest Rasmussen Poll. Rick's support is about steady in the high thirties, but Casey keeps dropping. He's now down to 48%. The poll summary pretty much tells what's going on here.
Casey has lost at least a point in each of the last several surveys. The decline likely reflects renewed attention to the abortion issue....

Casey currently attracts only 70% support from Democrats, 60% from liberals. In January, he drew 78% from Democrats, 82% from liberals.
Meanwhile, the conservative revolt continues to hurt Santorum. The poll shows:
Santorum's support from the GOP and conservatives is also lackluster
They still haven't forgiven him and Bush for supporting Specter. Bush and Santorum both suffer the same problem. They are branded as "conservatives" but are seen by the conservative base as untrustworthy moderates.

The poll concludes that although Casey's pro-life stance has cost him a lot of support, the race has not yet narrowed sufficently to change the dynamics. Casey still looks like a winner.

Read the poll summary here.

Meanwhile, the gubenatorial race remains tight. In the latest poll Rendell holds a three-point edge over Swann, but that is based on a mere 500 person sample and is in effect a dead heat.

Read about it here.


The Issues PA/Pew poll is just out. It shows Swann with a slight lead over Rendell -- 35 to 29 percent with 34 percent undecided. The results are by no means decisive with so many undecided, but that 29 percent for incumbent Rendell doesn't look good. This looks to be Swann's race to win or lose.

Read about it here.

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