Day By Day

Wednesday, March 15, 2006

Pennsylvania Politics -- Some Interesting Results

The Strategic Vision poll is out for Pennsylvania and it shows:

1) Santorum has not gained any ground on Casey. He still trails by 14 points -- 52% to 38%. Rickey looks like a goner.

2) Swanny is in a dead heat with Fast Eddie Rendell for Governor -- both at 44%. This is not good for Rendell. His favorability rating is only 43% and for an incumbent that's not good. Swann's favorability rating, by contrast, is at 51%. Undecided is at 23% for both men, so there's lots of room for change, but Rendell is very much a known [and disliked] quantity. He's in trouble.

3) On the national scene no real surprises -- Hillary and Giuliani are the frontrunners with 38% each. McCain 27% and Al Gore 18% are in second place. So far, nobody has emerged in the Democratic party to take on Hillary, but the Giuliani/McCain fight is shaping up as a good one. I suspect that in the end Giuliani has the edge because he has actually governed. McCain is only a Senator and that qualifies him to be..., a Senator.

4) Pennsylvania people like Condi, but aren't sure she should run, undestandable since she has never run for anything ever. But think about a Rudy/Condi ticket. Hmmmm, makes me smile.

5) Regarding Bush -- it's the economy stupid. People's opinions of Bush track closely with their opinion of the economy. He has 35% approval overall and only 34% approval on the economy. By contrast 39% approve of his handling of Iraq and 46% approve the war on terror. It's the economy that is dragging him down, and the key to the economy is gas prices. That is a really, really sore issue with American voters and they are reminded of it every time they go to the pump. What's more gas prices are an entry into discussions of all sorts of things like corporate cronyism and Mid-East policy. The Democrats are beginning to sense this and could make it a big winner in the fall. On the flip side, that disapproval includes a lot of Republican budget hawks who aren't going to vote Democrat under any circumstances, so the picture might not be as bleak as it seems.

For the whole poll summary go here.

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