The Orange Revolution Sputters to a Halt -- Maybe

While we've been focused on New Orleans and the disgusting political melee that erupted in its aftermath, important things have been going on in the rest of the world.

One of the most significant has taken place in Ukraine. There the revolutionary government has been almost completely paralyzed by vicious political infighting and corruption. Essentially there are three major factions competing to direct the government. One represents the old corrupt pro-Russian political oligarchy that lost control of the country in last year's "Orange Revolution" but which is still a force in the Ukranian parliament. A second, equally corrupt faction, represents an emergent economic oligarchy that seeks to promote closer ties with Europe and the US and to encourage foreign investment from which they can profit. It centers around and seeks influence with President Viktor Yushchenko [the guy who was poisoned, remember?]. A third, populist movement centered around the Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko who, while immensely popular in the early months after the revolution has been unable to deal effectively with important economic problems that have emerged in its aftermath, particularly those that have to do with unraveling the corrupt deals that had been made in the 1990s that benefited Moscow and the old political oligarchy.

Tymoshenko has always been something of a populist, and there are a great many number of economic crises and reprivatization matters that she has handled incredibly poorly. Beautiful she may be, but good governance hasn’t been her strong point.

Read his analysis here. It's about as good as you will get.

As charges and counter-charges of corruption and ineptitude have mounted, accompanied by prominent resignations, a political crisis emerged. New constitutional provisions about to take effect in a matter of weeks would have greatly strengthened the powers of the populist Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko. President Yushchenko responded to this impending loss of influence by sacking the entire government, including Yulia.

Yushchenko has said that his drastic action was necessary to restore stability to a government rapidly spinning out of control, and he is probably right. Western investors in particular, upon which the economic hopes of the country ride, have been increasingly frustrated by the rampant political infighting. But Yushchenko responded that the President was simply trying to avoid having to avoid dealing with the exposure of rampant corruption in his regime, and that also contains a lot of truth, although it must be recognized that the bribery and corruption that has flourished in recent months could also be seen as attempts on the part of businessmen to cut through the stasis imposed by a government in disarray.

At first sacked PM Tymoshenko tried to maintain good personal relations with the President, focusing her anger on his circle of advisors, but not Yushchenko himself. But that comity quickly dissolved when the President charged her personally with corruption. She responded that she and the President were no longer on the same team. [here]

Both Moscow and Washington have expressed concern with the situation. Russia supports stability and an agreement to honor the old corrupt deals made a decade ago. President Bush [he has other things than New Orleans to worry about] in a personal phone message urged stability and a commitment to further reform that would undo many of those corrupt arrangements. [here] President Yushchenko has made soothing sounds in both directions assuring Bush that he would continue to follow a pro-Western, pro-investment agenda and telling Moscow that their concerns would be addressed. [here] Both the pro-western and the pro-Moscow factions seem to be satisfied as Yushchenko has declared that his government will focus almost exclusively on economic development. [here and here] But various opposition groups have rallied around Yulia who is now in open opposition to the government. [here]

Has the Orange Revolution ground to a halt? Will Victor be able to clean up his government and implement necessary reforme? Will the oligarchs triumph? Will Yulia lead a second revolution? At this point anything could happen?

Stay tuned.