Recent Military Operations in Iraq

The WaPo reports:

Iraqi Forces Show Signs Of Progress In Offensive

By Jonathan Finer

Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, September 22, 2005; Page A01

The Tall Afar offensive, which began Sept. 2, is the largest urban military operation in Iraq since November's siege of Fallujah. Unlike many previous joint offensives, however, it is the Iraqi army that has the majority of the soldiers on the ground -- 5,000 of the roughly 8,500 troops involved -- that does the most intense fighting and that pays the heaviest price. At least nine Iraqi soldiers have been killed during the operation, compared with one American.

Of course there are problems -- a lack of effective junior grade officers, too few Sunnis in the force, the perception among the Sunni minority that the Iraqi Army is an ethnic establishment, etc., which the article dwells on in loving detail -- but improvements are also noticable and an effective multi-ethnic Iraqi force is taking shape.

That does not mean that American troops can withdraw anytime soon.

U.S. and Iraqi commanders acknowledge that it will be many months before the Iraqi units are able to function on their own, a belief echoed by dozens of Tall Afar residents interviewed during the operation. One year ago this month, U.S. and Iraqi forces swept through Tall Afar, but when the Americans largely withdrew from the region, the insurgency returned, stronger than ever.

"If the Americans leave, the chaos will come back. The bad people will come back again, just like before," said Abdullah Wahab Muhammed Younis, one of the city's most prominent Shiite sheiks, who said insurgents have killed 14 members of his family and wounded 33 in the past year.

"The Iraqi army is stronger than it was, but they are not ready. Not yet."

A President Bush has time and again emphasized, right from the start -- this is going to be a long and difficult process. What is important here is that there has been a marked shift in combat roles. In earlier phases the US troops were bearing the brunt of the fightning. Now US troops are acting in a support capacity while the Iraqi forces are more directly engaged. The analogy, made many months ago by Secy. Rumsfeld, seems to be holding up. This is like training a kid to ride a bike. You start off holding them up, but over time you move from controlling them, to supporting them, to guiding them, to monitoring them, to finally letting go completely. We have moved from control to support and that, to quote a famous criminal, is "a good thing."

RELATED:

For a really cool overview of recent operations in Iraq see this flash presentation put together by Bill Roggio and his cohorts. [here] It makes clear a lot of things that don't get into the two-minute soundbites on network news.

MORE RELATED:

Josh Manchester, playing off Roggio's presentation, does a systematic comparison of how operations were reported in Time magazine and how they really went down. [here]

AND THIS:

The Belmont Club provides a nice analysis of what Roggio's presentation shows. [here] What stands out is just how precise and effective individual attacks by coalition forces have become. This is an indication of just how much better operational intelligence has become. This, perhaps more than anything else, indicates how the tide is running in Iraq.

FINALLY:

Econopundit notes the dramatic falloff in attacks on the Iraqi oil industry and its employees. [here]. He feels that it is a good indication of how the overall war is going.

MEANWHILE:

Although things are looking up in Iraq, domestic support for the war effort is collapsing.

CNN reports:

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Thursday indicated fewer than half of Americans believe the United States will win the Iraq war, and 55 percent of those surveyed said it should speed up withdrawal plans.

Only 21 percent said the United States definitely would win the war in Iraq...

Read it here.

So we're in a horserace -- can the situation in Iraq be stabilized before public disenchantment forces precipitous withdrawal?

My money's on Bush....

Stay tuned...