Korea Fires test missile

AP reports:

North Korea apparently test fired a missile into the Sea of Japan on Sunday, raising new concerns about Pyongyang's nuclear intentions just days after a U.S. intelligence official said the secretive Stalinist state had the ability to arm a missile with a nuclear warhead.

Read the story here. Asian governments are saying the missile test wasn't important -- I'm not so sure.

The real story here is China's inaction. At the time of the Iraq war the Bush administration was being branded "unilateralist cowboys," so in dealings with Iran and Korea, they adopted a multi-lateralist line -- insisting on six power talks in Korea, and partnering with the Europe in negotiations with Iran. And how productive have those talks been? We had hoped that China would pressure Korea on the question of nuclear weapons, but in fact China has been obstructionist. It is more interested in undermining American influence in Asia than it is in controlling North Korea's erratic government. With regard to Iran, Europe seems determined to accept anything the Mullahs say rather than to exert real pressures on them.

Could there be two better examples of the ineffectiveness of multilateralism? Multilateralism makes a lot of sense when things are going well, or when great powers can exercise effective controls over potential rogue states, as was the case during the Cold War, but in response to a real emerging crisis mutilateralism, which involves states with conflicting interests, is a prescription for inaction and ineffectiveness.

The real danger is that the failure of multilateralism will either result in more proliferation of WMDs or might force the US to again take the initiative against Iran and/or Korea.

I have often argued that proliferation of WMDs is probably unstoppable in the long run. The best we can hope for is to delay the process long enough so that effective countermeasures can be developed. That is the point of much of our military reorganization and deployment and our homeland security structure. But major changes in our defense posture take time -- lots of it -- and if we accept the nuclearization of Iran and Korea other states will be encouraged to emulate them and proliferation will accelerate. This is not a good situation.

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